Arizona vs. Duke prediction, odds for March Madness Sweet 16 game
The Arizona Wildcats (24-12) are trying to go somewhere they haven't been in 10 years — the Elite Eight.
Standing in Arizona's way is the No. 1 seed in the East Region and the betting favorite to win the 2025 men's basketball national championship — the Duke Blue Devils (33-3).
Duke is favored to win Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup by 9.5 points and ESPN's panel of college basketball experts all picked the Blue Devils to win. The two teams met earlier this season in Tucson and Duke cruised to a 69-55 victory.
But Arizona is a much different team than it was in November. Caleb Love is playing the best basketball of his career, Henri Veesaar has emerged as an NBA prospect and Tobe Awaka is dominating the offensive glass.
The X-factor in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup will likely be Carter Bryant. A five-star freshman, the 6-foot-8 forward has the length and athleticism to guard Duke All-American Cooper Flagg. If Bryant elects to turn pro, he has been projected as a top-20 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. He was electric in Arizona's first-round NCAA Tournament victory over Akron, finishing with 12 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks and several highlight-reel dunks.
Arizona vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Arizona +9.5 (-115)
- Duke -9.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Arizona: +390
- Duke: -520
Total
- 153.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Arizona vs. Duke How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, March 27
- Time: 6:39 p.m. MST/PT
- Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Arizona record: 24-12
- Duke record: 33-3
Arizona vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
Duke has not played a close game since its 74-71 victory over North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Blue Devils beat Louisville by 11 in the tourney championship, then rolled through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
With a healthy Flagg back in the lineup, the Blue Devils appear to be peaking at the right time. The one question mark that surrounds them is their schedule. Duke played the 60th toughest schedule in the nation, according to KenPom — by far the weakest schedule of the 16 teams still playing. The ACC was way down this year, with Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina all losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Duke is 5-3 this season in games decided by eight points or less and hasn't played in a close game with Flagg in the lineup since its 77-71 loss to Clemson on Feb. 8. If Arizona is able to keep the game close down the stretch, how will the Blue Devils respond?
Arizona played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country and is 6-8 in games decided by eight points or less (or games that went to overtime). Almost every game in the Big 12 was a street fight, and most of Arizona's 14 conference victories went down to the wire. Seven Big 12 teams made the tournament, and four are still playing.
ESPN's BPI predicts Duke has a 74% chance to beat Arizona.
Our prediction: Arizona 75, Duke 72.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-029877d49238355bd3388a94f90e3c72.jpg "Ben Sherman")
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his 27-year journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. A basketball junkie, March Madness is his favorite time of the year.