NCAA Tournament first-round predictions: Will Arizona, Oregon survive upset bids?
The East Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is loaded with offensive talent.
From No. 1 seed Duke to No. 13 seed Akron, the region features a host of teams who like to play fast and can put up points in bunches.
At least three of those teams — Arizona, Oregon and BYU — face tough first-round matchups. And No. 7 seed Saint Mary's — one team that doesn't play fast — will have its hands full with No. 10 Vanderbilt.
East Region first-round predictions: Seattle
The first-round matchups in the East are spread over four regional "pods" — Raleigh, North Carolina; Cleveland; Denver; and Seattle.
The Seattle pod features No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron and No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Liberty. Akron and Liberty are both flying across the country; Arizona has a short flight from Tucson; and Oregon could drive to Seattle from Eugene.
Akron doesn't have an impressive resume — 0-1 in Quad 1 games — but the Zips present myriad issues with their balance and shooting ability. They've made 369 3-pointers this season and they feature seven players who have made at least 30 triples.
Compare that with Arizona, who has made 232 3-pointers and has only three players who have drained 30 more from downtown. But the Wildcats are built around toughness and paint points, and their size should ultimately be too difficult for Akron to handle. Arizona is favored by 13.5 points, but it will be closer than that.
Prediction: No. 4 Arizona 85, No. 13 Akron 77
Oregon landed in the dreaded 5-12 matchup, which has produced more upsets than any other seed since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985 — a whopping 55 upsets. And there were two last season: No. 12 Grand Canyon beat No. 5 Saint Mary's and No. 12 James Madison stunned No. 5 Wisconsin.
The difference between the 12-5 and 13-6 matchup is staggering: Only 33 No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since 1985.
Oregon has won eight of its last nine, but only one of those wins was against an NCAA Tournament team (Wisconsin). The Ducks finished No. 29 in the NCAA NET Ranking and went 8-7 in Quad 1 games, but most of those wins came over two months ago.
Liberty finished No. 60 in the NET and doesn't have a single Quad 1 win, but the Flames have remarkable balance — and one of the best shooters in the country in senior guard Taelon Porter, who is averaging 13.9 points and shooting 46% from downtown.
Liberty has four players who score in double figures and seven who average at least 8.8 points per game. They also have length and tons of experience. Fifth-year senior guard Kaden Metheny (13.5 ppg) has been on a heater his last three games, shooting 16-of-31 from downtown to lead Liberty to the CUSA Tournament championship.
Oregon's 7-foot sophomore Nate Bittle will be a problem for Liberty, but the Flames have enough big bodies to throw at him, and if they get hot from downtown, watch out. There's a reason Oregon is only favored by 6.5 points. Down goes another No. 5 seed.
Prediction: No. 12 Liberty 73, No. 5 Oregon 68
East Region first-round predictions: Raleigh
Baylor's zone will give Mississippi State problems, and freshman VJ Edgecombe is getting better and better. The Bears are built for March.
Prediction: No. 9 Baylor 75, No. 8 Mississippi State 69
With our without Cooper Flagg, Duke will roll to victory over the play-in winner between American and Mount St. Mary's. We're predicting American will win, and move on to face Duke.
Prediction: No. 1 Duke 81, No. 16 American 57
East Region first-round predictions: Cleveland
Robert Morris (26-8) is really good, but Alabama (25-8) is on a different level. The Crimson Tide should win by 20.
Prediction: No. 2 Alabama 89, No. 15 Robert Morris 69
After being upset by Grand Canyon in the first round last season, Saint Mary's has another tough draw in 2025. The Gaels have to travel across the country to face Vanderbilt, a team that has wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
The Commodores have played a much tougher schedule than Saint Mary's, and that will make the difference in this one.
Prediction: No. 10 Vanderbilt 71, No. 7 Saint Mary's 67
East Region first-round predictions: Denver
No. 3 Wisconsin shouldn't have much trouble with No. 14 Montana. The Badgers are favored by 14.5 points, but they'll win by more than 20.
Prediction: No. 3 Wisconsin 78, No. 14 Montana 56
In the final first-round game in the East Region, BYU has to face a VCU team that is much better than its No. 11 seed. The Rams finished No. 31 in NET — just six spots behind BYU.
BYU has been playing incredible basketball the past five weeks, but Houston smothered them in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals and VCU will do the same on Thursday.
Prediction: No. 11 VCU 77, No. 6 BYU 72
