Preview: Arizona hosts Texas Tech in pivotal non-conference home game
Entering week 3 of the college football season, Arizona faces a stern test in what feels like a must-win situation against visiting Texas Tech. On the field, Arizona hopes to show signs of improvement in all three phases of the game, particularly defense and special teams where things have been shaky through a 1-1 start to the year. Offensively, Arizona has been racking up yards and points, but is seeking more consistency and faster starts to games against FBS opponents.
Off the field, someone in the Athletic Director’s office will be paying attention to the fans. Not only how many show up, but how many stay for the duration of 60 minutes.
Arizona is in the middle of a critical three-game home stand. A week ago, the Wildcats dispatched FCS foe Northern Arizona with explosive offensive firepower and hit-and-miss defense. What should have been a momentum-building night ended in a thud when Northern Arizona’s offense ran rough shot over Arizona’s defense in the final 30 minutes. Fans walked away frustrated. The question tonight is will the fans who walked away scratching their heads actually return?
How will another poor defensive showing and a potential loss impact future home game attendance? Following Arizona’s Pac-12 home opener against UCLA on September 28, Arizona will only have three more games played in Tucson the remainder of the season. A poor showing tonight and an already scarce stadium could see Arizona really take a hit in attendance.
This is important because attendance is more than ticket sales and concessions. It’s about recruiting.
Alabama’s Nick Saban and Greg Byrne (UA’s former Athletics Director) are openly endorsing the Tide’s student app that literally tracks student attendance at home football games and rewards those students who actually stay for the entire game. We can debate whether government-funded academic institutions should be tracking student whereabouts another time, but there’s a method to Alabama’s madness. Saban, a master recruiter, understands that high schoolers and junior college players considering Alabama, while on game day visits, actually pay attention to whether or not the house is full. The modern day athlete cares as much about the uniforms they’re wearing and fan support as they do about winning. If a top recruit is down to Alabama and Clemson, something as silly as which stadium was rowdier on their official visit could become the deciding factor.
Hence, can Arizona really afford to lose tonight? How many recruits may be turned off later this year by a half-empty stadium in the third quarter? I guess we’ll never truly know, but one doesn’t need to quantify every single data set to draw some conclusions that things aren’t exactly clicking for Arizona these days.
Perhaps that will change tonight.
Despite a shaky start to the season, things can turn around quickly in sports. An inspiring defensive effort tonight against a Texas Tech offense averaging 557 yards and 41 points per game could go a long ways toward positive change.
The last time these two schools met was a 1989 when the Red Raiders defeated the Wildcats 24-14 at home. Texas Tech leads the all-time series by a wide margin, 26-4-2.
To buck history and add a fifth all-time victory over the visitors, Arizona hopes to establish the running game early on the strength of running backs J.J. Taylor and Gary Brightwell. Overall, Arizona’s offense will absolutely need to put up massive points; something they have managed to do thus far in averaging 629 yards of total offense and 51 points per game. A key will be red zone scoring. The Wildcats will need touchdowns, not field goals, on Saturday. That is unless Arizona’s defense finally comes together and becomes stingier than their statistical averages over the past four seasons under Coordinator Marcel Yates.
Defensively, the Wildcats will need to figure out a way to confuse Red Raiders quarterback Alan Bowman. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound sophomore has completed 70-of-98 passes for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns, while leading Texas Tech to a 2-0 start to the season. Granted, the two victories came over UTEP and Montana State, but let’s not forget that Arizona’s own defense has given up a ridiculous amount of yards to Hawaii and Northern Arizona. While Texas Tech’s offense is not as perfectly balanced as Arizona’s (the Wildcats are averaging 304 rush yards and 325 pass yards per game), the Red Raiders do have an effective ground attack that, if working, could really open up the wounds in Arizona’s secondary as the Wildcats are currently allowing 404 pass yards per outing.
The bottom line is Arizona’s offense, particularly at home, is too good for the Wildcats to lose. However, fans and media shared a similar sentiment prior to a stunning, season-opening road loss to Hawaii.
My eyes have seen too much of Arizona’s defense to think the Wildcats can even come close to holding Texas Tech to fewer than 40 points. After all, Arizona forced the Rainbow Warriors into six turnovers, yet still managed to lose the game 45-38.
My eyes tell me Arizona’s will fall tonight by a wide margin, 52-31. My brain tells me it will likely be closer, with Texas Tech edging the Wildcats 44-41. However, my gut tells me something that only long-time Wildcat faithful know. Just when all hope seems lost for this program, they rise up and surprise. Hence, my final prediction:
Arizona 42, Texas Tech 34