What to watch for when Arizona visits Colorado today in Boulder
Saturday’s matchup between Arizona and Colorado should be a good one. Both teams are coming off conference wins, with first place on the line in the Pac-12 South. Rather than waxing poetically, let’s just get right to the good stuff.
Will Khalil Tate Play?
The short answer is yes. Sources indicate a collective belief within the program that Tate will be running the Arizona offense this afternoon. If Tate does indeed play (fans found out about an hour before the UCLA game last week that Tate was “out” of the lineup due to a lower body injury), the senior quarterback will return to the scene that all but ignited his career. In 2017, Tate rushed for 327 yards in Arizona’s 45-42 win over the Buffs in Boulder.
With Tate at the helm, Arizona should be able to stick to the type of game plan that allowed the Wildcats to control the pace of the game in their 28-14 win over Texas Tech, using the much-needed running game to wear down a Colorado defense that is allowing 175 rush yards per game.
What if Tate Doesn’t Play?
Arizona will turn to freshman Grant Gunnell, who helped lead the Wildcats to a 20-17 win over UCLA in a fashion opposite victory over the Red Raiders. Rather than punishing a defense with a steady ground attack, Arizona turned to the air behind Gunnell’s 44 pass attempts. Problematic is the fact that a tried-and-true recipe to winning conference road games is the ability to rush the football away from home. Last weekend against the Bruins, Arizona only amassed 99 yards on 30 rush attempts. While okay in the friendly confines of Arizona Stadium, the often windy and rowdy Folsom Field will all but demand using the running game to stay ahead of the chains and give the Wildcat offense multiple options on third-and-short.
Colorado’s Offensive Line vs. Arizona’s Defensive Line
In Arizona last two games, wins over Texas Tech and UCLA, the Wildcats interior defense has been doing its job. The Wildcats have gobbled up runners between the tackles and forced ball carriers outside where the speed of Arizona’s linebackers and secondary can rally to the football. Colorado will challenge Arizona’s defensive line early and often, hoping the same rush plays that go for short gains in the first half result in explosion plays in the fourth quarter. On the season, Arizona is allowing an applaud-worth 137.3 rush yards at a 4.4 yards per carry clip. If that holds on Saturday, the Wildcats will have a chance to win for sure. However, if Colorado finds success on the ground, is able to muster long drives and wear down the Arizona defense, the Buffs will have a solid chance of holding court.
Arizona’s Offensive Line vs. Colorado’s Defensive Line
Statistically, Arizona has an advantage. The Wildcats remain the league’s top rushing offense. However, Colorado will have different game plans for Tate and Gunnell. If Tate does indeed return from injury and make the start, Colorado will do everything in its power to contain Tate in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm. Easier said than done, but that will be the game plan. It may actually work, though, considering once Tate was injured last season with nagging ankle tightness, his willingness to use his feet diminished and Arizona’s offense suffered at times as a result. If Gunnell plays on Saturday, Colorado will become more aggressive at the line of scrimmage, likely play tighter coverage on the receivers, and force Gunnell to make plays in a collapsing pocket. The freshman did not have a single turnover against UCLA. He would almost need to do the same against the Buffs to exit the stadium with a win.
If there’s good news, Colorado has been susceptible to the run. The Buffs allow 175 rush yards per game while Arizona is averaging 255.5. No matter what, Arizona’s success on Saturday will most likely be dictated by its ability to rush the football.
Arizona’s Ability to Contain Steven Montez
The CU quarterback is a big game type of playmaker, with the ability to do damage with his feet and through the air. What makes Montez difficult to defend is he seems to make better plays when defenses really turn up the heat. Montez is experienced enough to recognize blitz packages and is able to allude tacklers in the pocket to extend plays and force the secondary to cover receivers for 5+ seconds. While Montez is not picture perfect, he’s close in completing 90-of-134 passes for 1,164 yards and 9 touchdowns. Where fans should pay the most attention is on long down-and-distance situations. Montez is a pass first type of quarterback in this CU system, but he’ll use his feet to gain big yards when it’s there. Expect to see the Wildcats to use a speedy-type linebacker like Tony Fields or Anthony Pandy to spy Montez on second- and third-and-long.
Prediction
I’m still waiting for the dam to break on Arizona’s defense, primarily because improvements have been made during a three-game home stand. However, I’ve seen enough to know that Defensive Coordinator Marcel Yates has heard enough of the complaints, moans, and groans, to understand that his defense simply cannot boomerang back to being notoriously bad. I expect to see Arizona remain aggressive on all three levels, with a healthy mix of man and zone coverage in the secondary to try and keep the experienced Montez guessing all game. The key for Arizona’s defense is to somehow make Colorado one-dimensional and the easiest way to do that is stuff the run and force Montez to exclusively make plays from the pocket.
Another key is special teams. The Wildcats had one of their better special teams’ outings in a long, long time against UCLA. In what is expected to be a relatively low-scoring affair in Boulder, all of the little things will matter on Saturday. Field goals inside of 40 yards needs to be converted, punts and punt coverage must be executed, and average starting field position will absolutely matter.
Overall, if Tate plays I like Arizona’s chances. If Gunnell plays, I think a pass-happy Arizona offense will not be enough to win on the road even though Colorado’s defense is absolutely vulnerable to the pass (291 pass yards per game). The reason is not Gunnell’s abilities, but Arizona’s ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. Arizona has more scoring play options inside the red zone with Tate in the lineup.
