Arizona Wildcats’ Bowl Eligibility Odds Dwindle in Rough Start for Brennan Era
The Arizona Wildcats have a long way to go if they want to play a 13th game this season.
The Wildcats, currently 3-6, will have to win their remaining three games of the regular season to become eligible this year, the first under new head coach Brent Brennan.
After the team was blown out in the ‘Space Game’ by the UCF Knights, the odds of reaching the postseason have almost disappeared. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the model only gives the Wildcats a 4.5 percent chance of doing so.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Rating results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
After starting off the season with such high expectations, the Wildcats have the lowest power index (-2.6) in the Big 12 conference. This comes in the same season the team was ranked 21st in the AP preseason Top 25. According to the model, they now sit 79th among all FBS schools.
Over the next two games, the program will face teams in the conference with similar records. The Houston Cougars (4-5), whom the Wildcats play next, seem like an even game on paper, but they have looked good over their past few games. They are coming off a win against 17th-ranked Kansas State this past weekend.
If Arizona can get past Houston, they will have a tough challenge getting win number five in the following week against the TCU Horned Frogs. The program is far from the team that went to the national championship just two seasons ago, as they have had some struggles this season. They have lost a few close games this season, including a one-point loss to UCF earlier in the season and a two-point loss just last week against the Baylor Bears.
The gauntlet of the Wildcats' remaining schedule ends with their most formidable challenge in the Arizona State Sun Devils. The only team of the last three teams who have already clinched a bow game still has a shot at making the Big 12 conference game if they finish their season strong. The in-state rivalry also always adds an extra competitive touch to the contest. This will be no easy task.
The football index predicts the Wildcats will finish the season 4-8, meaning they will win only one of their final three games. Let’s see if they can prove the model wrong.
The Wildcats will have an extra week to prepare for their final three games of the season. They will not be back in action against Houston until Friday, November 15th, at Arizona Stadium.
