Arizona State-BYU predictions: Big 12 football championship on the line
Tempe, Arizona, is the place to be this weekend.
The biggest college football game in the country — No. 14 BYU (9-1) vs. No. 21 Arizona State (8-2) — will take place Saturday afternoon in front of a sellout crowd at Mountain American Stadium on the campus of Arizona State University.
The winner will be in a great position to earn a berth in the Big 12 football championship game. The loser will be all but eliminated.
And while the Sun Devils are 3.5-point favorites, both coaches know the game is a pick 'em.
"You look at the conference, there's a lot of parity ... anyone has a shot," BYU coach Kalani Sitake said during his weekly press conference.
Here's a look at what the experts and predictive models are saying about the game.
ESPN FPI Predictions for Arizona State-BYU
ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" gives Arizona State the edge over BYU. The ESPN FPI gives ASU a 55.9% chance to beat the Cougars.
The FPI favors the Sun Devils in both of their remaining games, including next week's season finale vs. rival Arizona. But the FPI has not exactly been accurate this season. It predicted the Sun Devils would lose to Kansas State — a game they won 24-14.
- at Kansas State - 25.5% chance to win (ASU won 24-14)
- BYU - 55.9% chance to win
- at Arizona - 70.6% chance to win
If Arizona State wins out and finishes 7-2 in the Big 12, the Sun Devils will likely finish in a three-way tie for second place and earn a spot in the conference championship game. Colorado is the X-factor in the title game picture. The Buffaloes have just one conference loss and control their own destiny, but they face a red-hot Kansas team on the road this weekend.
Expert Predictions
The oddsmakers favor Arizona State by 3 to 3.5 points, but the experts are split. PFF's Dalton Wasserman picks Arizona State to win 31-27, but Max Chadwick has BYU winning 27-24.
Here's what Wasserman said:
"The Sun Devils have won five of their last six games due to the improvement of their quarterback, Sam Leavitt. The only loss in that stretch was a game that Leavitt missed due to injury. ... He has developed a tremendous chemistry with star receiver Jordyn Tyson, which has given the Sun Devils a balanced approach on offense. Between Leavitt, Tyson and running back Cameron Skattebo, the Sun Devils possess multiple matchup problems for opposing defenses. ... BYU had been playing with fire and finally got burnt last week against Kansas. Arizona State stays hot in what should be a game filled with tension on both sides."
And here's what Chadwick said:
"Jake Retzlaff has been one of the most improved quarterbacks in America this season, raising his PFF grade to an 82.8 mark compared to a 48.3 grade in 2023. However, there’s been a clear line of demarcation between his splits when defenses don’t speed him up against when they do. ... Fortunately for him,Arizona State has really struggled to get after the quarterback this season. The Sun Devils have the second-worst pass-rushing grade in all of college football (56.9) with the third-worst pass-rush win rate (21.3%). ... With mostly clean pockets to work from, Retzlaff is able to find a lot of success against Arizona State’s defense. The Cougars win and keep their Big 12 title and playoff hopes alive."
BYU at Arizona State Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Arizona State -144, BYU +120
Spread: Arizona State -3.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 48.5
Kickoff time: Saturday, Nov. 23 at 1:30 p.m. MST
TV Channel: ESPN
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.