Arizona State-Kansas State predictions, odds: ESPN FPI predicts surprising outcome
The lack of respect for Arizona State knows no bounds.
Despite a 7-2 record and victories over four teams who were picked to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 standings, the Sun Devils enter Saturday's road game at Kansas State as huge underdogs.
Granted, Arizona State is 1-2 on the road in the Big 12, with the only victory coming over last-place Oklahoma State.
But to ignore the Sun Devils' offensive and defensive efficiency — and marked improvement as the season has progressed — is ridiculous. By every meaningful measurement, Arizona State is a top 25 team in the country.
FPI Predictions for Arizona State-Kansas State
ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" gives Arizona State a ridiculously low chance to beat Kansas State. The ESPN FPI gives ASU a 25.5% chance to beat the Wildcats.
Fortunately for the Sun Devils, the FPI has been way off all season. It gave ASU a 43.5% chance to beat Oklahoma State — a game they won 42-21. The FPI predicts just one more victory for the Sun Devils this season. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of Arizona State's games:
- at Kansas State - 25.5%
- BYU - 49.2%
- at Arizona - 66%
If Arizona State wins out and finishes 7-2 in the Big 12, the Sun Devils have a shot of earning a spot in the conference championship game. Colorado is the X-factor in the title game race as the Buffaloes have just one conference loss and control their own destiny. ESPN gives ASU just a 5.8% chance of winning out, and a 2.8% chance of winning the conference.
Arizona State Overlooked Again
Despite a dismal performance in their last outing — a 24-19 loss to Houston where they were 13.5-point favorites — Kansas State opened as 8.5-point favorites over Arizona State.
Kansas State (7-2, 4-2) and Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) have identical records and very similar resumes, yet the Wildcats have been ranked in the AP Top 25 poll all season and are No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
The Sun Devils haven't sniffed a top 25 ranking and are definitely not featured in the CFP rankings.
"They definitely feel it," Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham said. "I've showed them everybody who says that we're still not good and we haven't played anybody. I've showed them that we're one of the few two-win teams that still aren't ranked."
The Sun Devils have yet another opportunity to prove the doubters wrong on Saturday night.
Arizona State at Kansas State Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Arizona State +225, Kansas State -280
Spread: Kansas State -17.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 51.5
Our Prediction: Arizona State 31, Kansas State 30
Kickoff time: Saturday, Nov. 16 at 5 p.m. MST/6 p.m. CT
TV Channel: ESPN
Live Stream Online: Stream Arizona State-Kansas State live on fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.