Arizona State's path to the Big 12 football championship game
There's a lot of football left to play, but the Arizona State Sun Devils have put themselves in a position where they can dream.
Sitting at 5-2 with five games to play, Kenny Dillingham's team is one victory away from bowl eligibility - and five wins away from a potential spot in the Big 12 football championship game.
The Big 12 remains as wide open as ever, with almost every game coming down to the wire. Last weekend was the perfect example. The conference's two remaining unbeaten teams - No. 10 Iowa State and No. 11 BYU - had to stage last-minute rallies at home to avoid huge upsets.
Heading into Week 9 there are nine Big 12 teams with two losses or fewer. All nine still have a shot at earning a spot in the 2024 Big 12 championship game:
- BYU (4-0)
- Iowa State (4-0)
- Kansas State (3-1)
- Texas Tech (3-1)
- Cincinnati (3-1)
- Colorado (3-1)
- Arizona State (2-2)
- TCU (2-2)
- West Virginia (2-2)
Here's a look at the most likely Big 12 championship game scenarios.
BYU, Iowa State Run The Table
If BYU (7-0, 4-0) and Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) both run the table, then this is a pointless discussion. But the analytics say the Cougars will stumble.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, BYU is not expected to win Saturday's game at UCF. The FPI gives UCF a 56% chance of beating the Cougars. If BYU loses, the race for that second spot will be wide open.
BYU still has to play at rival Utah and at Arizona State. Neither game will be easy. If the Cougars drop one of those, they'd be sitting at 7-2 and likely tied with several teams. In the first season of the new 16-team Big 12, the first tiebreaker to determine the conference championship participants is head-to-head results.
Iowa State has a more favorable schedule than BYU, and ESPN's FPI predicts the Cyclones will finish 9-0. Assuming that comes true, then everyone else is competing for that second spot.
Is Colorado The Most Dangerous One-Loss Team?
Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes could easily win out. They don't face a ranked team the rest of the way and ESPN's FPI favors them in all five games. If the Buffaloes finish 8-1, they will play Iowa State in the conference championship game.
The other one-loss teams - Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Kansas State - all have tough roads.
Cincinnati still has to play at Colorado, at Iowa State and at Kansas State. Not surprisingly ESPN's FPI predicts the Bearcats will lose all three games. Texas Tech is not predicted to win any of its next three games, and Kansas State will have to beat Iowa State on the road.
What About Arizona State?
If Arizona State can run the table - which would entail beating BYU - the Sun Devils would be 7-2 with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cougars.
Arizona State's two losses are to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, so the Sun Devils have to hope both teams lose three times. That's a realistic scenario when you consider the Red Raiders play at TCU, at Iowa State and vs. Colorado over their next three games - and ESPN's FPI predicts they will lose all three.
The Sun Devils don't play Iowa State or Colorado - and the Buffaloes are their biggest obstacle. If they win out, ASU can't catch them. If they lose one game, the Sun Devils would have a shot to win a tiebreaker. After head-to-head, the next two tiebreakers are record against all common conference opponents and record against the next highest placed conference opponent in the standings and proceeding down based on the order of finish.
Bottom line: Arizona State has to win out and get help. You never know.
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Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.