ESPN FPI predictions: Will Arizona State football win out?

Cam Skattebo's status is a big factor

Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (10) is "doubtful to questionable" for this week's game vs. UCF. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

It has been a season of firsts for the Arizona State football team.

In their first season in the Big 12, the Sun Devils picked up their first conference road victory last week — and became bowl eligible for the first time since 2021.

Now Arizona State (6-2, 3-2) is trying to put itself in a position to earn a prestigious bowl bid — or potentially a spot in the Big 12 championship game. They will need a healthy Cam Skattebo to accomplish that, and his status is in question for Saturday's home game vs. UCF (4-5, 2-4).

"He's actually doubtful to questionable for the game this week," Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham said during his press conference on Monday. "So we'll see how that transpires. He's not going to practice this week. ... We're gonna do whatever is in the best interest of him .... do whatever we can to get him healthy and get him back as soon as possible."

Still, the oddsmakers have the Sun Devils as 2.5-point favorites over the Knights, who are making the cross-country trip from Orlando to Tempe.

FPI Predictions for Arizona State football

Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) is coming off of his best game of the season in the Sun Devils' 42-21 win over Oklahoma State. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" likes Arizona State's chances this weekend at home. The ESPN FPI gives ASU a 60.1% chance to beat UCF. Last week, the FPI gave ASU a 43.5% chance of beating Oklahoma State, a game they won by 21 points.

The FPI predicts two more wins for the Sun Devils this season - Saturday vs. UCF and the regular season finale on the road at rival Arizona. ASU's home game vs. No. 9 BYU on Nov. 23 is now considered a coin flip. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of Arizona State's games:

• UCF - 60.1% chance to win
• at Kansas State - 26.2%
• BYU - 49.7%
• at Arizona - 70.4%

After beating Oklahoma State — and dissecting the chaos in the Big 12 last weekend — the FPI bumped up the Sun Devils' chances of winning out, winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff. The FPI now gives Arizona State a 4.2% chance of winning out (it was 1% last week), a 2.4% chance of winning the conference (0% last week) and a 2.6% chance of making the CFP (0% last week).

Here are the latest ESPN FPI predictions for which team will win the 2024 Big 12 football championship:

1. BYU - 36.5% chance to win the Big 12
2. Iowa State - 21.5%
3. Colorado - 19.3%
4. Kansas State - 14.2%
5. Texas Tech - 4.9%
6. Arizona State - 2.4%
7. Cincinnati - 1.5%
8. TCU - 0.5%
9. West Virginia - 0.4%
10. Baylor - 0.1%
11. Houston - 0.1%

More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis

• ASU routs OSU to become bowl eligible

• Cam Skattebo highest-ranked RB in the country

• Cam Skattebo's huge game should vault him into Heisman contention

• ASU's path to the College Football Playoff is now clear

• Kenny Dillingham compares QB Sam Leavitt to NFL starter

• Coach K gives recruiting pitch for Arizona State basketball

• Ridiculous travel schedule not sustainable for former Pac-12 teams

• Top NIL earners in Big 12 football