ESPN FPI predicts Arizona State football vs. Oklahoma State winner
In its first season in the Big 12, Arizona State (5-2, 2-2) is still looking for its first Big 12 football road victory.
The Sun Devils are hoping it happens Saturday in Stillwater when they take on a reeling Oklahoma State (3-5, 0-5) team that is trying to snap a five-game losing streak.
The Sun Devils have been a different offensive team on the road in their two losses, averaging just 18 points per game. Some of that has to do with the absence of starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who missed their 24-14 loss to Cincinnati with a rib injury. Leavitt has been cleared to play and will be back behind center on Saturday.
On Wednesday, after Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham confirmed Leavitt will be the starter this week, the point spread jumped from 1.5 to 3.5 in favor of the Sun Devils. Despite being slight favorites, Dillingham knows how tough it will be to win on Saturday.
"This is a team that has won seven games for, I think, 20 years in a row. And it's their homecoming," Dillingham said. "We're going to get their very, very best. Coach Gundy has been doing this for a long time at one of the highest levels amongst anybody in college football."
FPI Predictions for Arizona State
ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" does not like Arizona State's chances this weekend on the road. The ESPN FPI gives ASU a 43.5% chance to beat Oklahoma State.
The FPI continues to predict just two more wins for the Sun Devils - at home vs. UCF and the regular season finale on the road at rival Arizona. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of Arizona State's games this season:
- at Oklahoma State - 43.5% chance to win
- UCF - 60%
- at Kansas State - 19.1%
- BYU - 41.1%
- at Arizona - 57.3%
If Arizona State wins out and finishes 7-2 in conference, the Sun Devils have an outside shot of earning a spot in the Big 12 championship game. ESPN gives ASU just a 1% chance of winning out, and a 0% chance of winning the conference. Here are the latest FPI predictions for the Big 12 football title race:
- BYU - 33%
- Iowa State - 32%
- Kansas State - 24.5%
- Colorado - 8.2%
- West Virginia - 1%
- Cincinnati - 1%
- TCU - 1%
- Arizona State - 0%
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.