ESPN FPI predicts Arizona State football vs. Oklahoma State winner

ESPN's prediction is surprising

The Arizona State football team needs a win on Saturday at Oklahoma State to become bowl eligible. / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

In its first season in the Big 12, Arizona State (5-2, 2-2) is still looking for its first Big 12 football road victory.

The Sun Devils are hoping it happens Saturday in Stillwater when they take on a reeling Oklahoma State (3-5, 0-5) team that is trying to snap a five-game losing streak.

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The Sun Devils have been a different offensive team on the road in their two losses, averaging just 18 points per game. Some of that has to do with the absence of starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who missed their 24-14 loss to Cincinnati with a rib injury. Leavitt has been cleared to play and will be back behind center on Saturday.

On Wednesday, after Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham confirmed Leavitt will be the starter this week, the point spread jumped from 1.5 to 3.5 in favor of the Sun Devils. Despite being slight favorites, Dillingham knows how tough it will be to win on Saturday.

"This is a team that has won seven games for, I think, 20 years in a row. And it's their homecoming," Dillingham said. "We're going to get their very, very best. Coach Gundy has been doing this for a long time at one of the highest levels amongst anybody in college football."

FPI Predictions for Arizona State

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo leads the Big 12 in all-purpose yards per game with 161.6. He's going up against an Oklahoma State defense that is the second-worst in the country against the run. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" does not like Arizona State's chances this weekend on the road. The ESPN FPI gives ASU a 43.5% chance to beat Oklahoma State.

The FPI continues to predict just two more wins for the Sun Devils - at home vs. UCF and the regular season finale on the road at rival Arizona. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of Arizona State's games this season:

• at Oklahoma State - 43.5% chance to win
• UCF - 60%
• at Kansas State - 19.1%
• BYU - 41.1%
• at Arizona - 57.3%

If Arizona State wins out and finishes 7-2 in conference, the Sun Devils have an outside shot of earning a spot in the Big 12 championship game. ESPN gives ASU just a 1% chance of winning out, and a 0% chance of winning the conference. Here are the latest FPI predictions for the Big 12 football title race:

1. BYU - 33%
2. Iowa State - 32%
3. Kansas State - 24.5%
4. Colorado - 8.2%
5. West Virginia - 1%
6. Cincinnati - 1%
7. TCU - 1%
8. Arizona State - 0%

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