ESPN FPI predicts surprisingly low win total for Arizona State football
The Arizona State Sun Devils have already exceeded expectations.
Picked to finish last in the Big 12 with a projected win total of 4.5, Kenny Dillingham's team is 5-2 and one victory away from bowl eligibility.
The question now is what is Arizona State's ceiling?
According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) the Sun Devils' ceiling is seven victories.
The FPI predicts two more wins for ASU this season: at home vs. UCF on Nov. 9 and their season finale at rival Arizona on Nov. 30. That would leave the Sun Devils at 7-5 and bowl eligible - but just 2-4 in their final six games. That's an underwhelming prediction for a team that has been rock solid through seven games.
Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of Arizona State's games this season:
- at Oklahoma State - 43.7% chance to win
- UCF - 57%
- at Kansas State - 18.1%
- BYU - 46.3%
- at Arizona - 58.7%
With senior running back Cam Skattebo bowling over defenders and breaking tackles on long runs, ASU's rushing offense has been one of the most efficient operations in the country. Through seven games the Sun Devils rank No. 22 in the country in rushing efficiency, per College Football Insiders. ASU is also in the top 25 in the country in stopping the run.
A tried and true formula for winning big games in November? Running the ball and stopping the run.
It stands to reason the Sun Devils will be in every remaining game, considering their two losses - both on the road - were close games. If they have a healthy Skattebo in the backfield - and can get quarterback Sam Leavitt back sooner rather than later - they should exceed ESPN's FPI prediction.
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Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.