Betting on Big 12 football is impossible
With five games left in the regular season, the Big 12 race is wide open.
BYU (8-0) and Iowa State (7-0) - the lone remaining unbeaten teams - appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Big 12 football championship game.
But it's never that simple in the most balanced football conference in the country. What Kansas coach Bill Self said about Big 12 basketball - "there is no bottom" - applies to football as well.
"Every game is going to be tough," Houston coach Willie Fritz said on Monday. "This is a very, very balanced and competitive league."
The Big 12 is so balanced that the oddsmakers have no idea how to set the lines. Look no further than last week:
No. 11 BYU was a 2.5-point road underdog at UCF. The Cougars won 37-24.
TCU was a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs won by one, 35-34.
West Virginia was a 4.5-point road underdog at Arizona. The Mountaineers won 31-26.
Houston was a 4.5-point home underdog vs. Utah. The Cougars won 17-14.
No. 16 Kansas State was a 9.5-point home favorite vs. Kansas. The Wildcats barely won, 29-27.
Good luck betting the Big 12.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives Iowa State the best chance to win the Big 12 at 32.7%. BYU is right behind at 32.2%, followed by Kansas State at 24.6%.
But does anybody really think the conference will "go chalk" the rest of the way?
BYU still has to play at rival Utah (4-4) and at Arizona State (5-2). The Utes are struggling offensively, but they were the preseason pick to win the conference for a reason. Rest assured they will be extra motivated against the Cougars.
The Sun Devils are 4-0 at home and present a multitude of problems for BYU - starting with running back Cam Skattebo. Rated the best running back in the Big 12 by PFF, Skattebo has rushed for 848 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and he has three games of 150-plus yards. BYU is vulnerable to the run, as they showed in their near-disastrous 38-35 win over Oklahoma State when they allowed 269 yards rushing.
Iowa State still has to contend with Texas Tech (5-3), Cincinnati (5-3) and Kansas State. All three games are at home, but none will be easy.
With five weeks to go, it's anybody's guess who will finish atop the Big 12.
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.