Predicting Arizona State football's win total
In their first season in the Big 12, the Arizona State Sun Devils have literally come from the bottom of the heap to put themselves in contention for at least a top-eight finish in the 16-team conference.
Picked to finish last in the preseason Big 12 football media poll, the Sun Devils are 5-1 with a huge road game at Cincinnati (4-2) looming on Saturday.
Arizona State football coach Kenny Dillingham knows how challenging the matchup with the Bearcats will be. Beating a talented team like Cincinnati is hard enough. After factoring in the travel circumstances - 1,550 air miles, traveling through three time zones, a 9 a.m. MST kickoff - the degree of difficulty increases significantly.
"If you look at right now in college football, traveling three time zones and the win percentage, like I told our guys, is very, very, very low," said Dillingham in his Monday press conference.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Sun Devils a 38.3% chance of beating the Bearcats, and the oddsmakers now have ASU as 5.5-point underdogs.
A win over Cincinnati would make Arizona State bowl eligible, and the latest bowl projections from CBS Sports have ASU slotted for the Sun Bowl vs. Syracuse.
Bowl eligibility would be a huge step forward for Dillingham's program, but obviously the Sun Devils want more. So what's a realistic prediction for ASU's win total? Here are game-by-game predictions for the final six games of the regular season:
Oct. 19: Arizona State at Cincinnati, 9 a.m. MST
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 38.3% chance of victory
- Betting odds: Cincinnati favored by 5.5 points
- Our prediction: Cincinnati 28, Arizona State 24
Nov. 2: Arizona State at Oklahoma State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 46.6% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 41, Oklahoma State 33
Nov. 9: UCF at Arizona State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 62% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 35, UCF 30
Nov. 16: Arizona State at Kansas State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 23.7% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Kansas State 30, Arizona State 24
Nov. 23: BYU at Arizona State, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 49% chance of victory
- Our prediction: BYU 32, Arizona State 31
Nov. 30: Arizona State at Arizona, time TBD
- ESPN FPI: ASU has 54.7% chance of victory
- Our prediction: Arizona State 38, Arizona 31
Going 3-3 over the final six games would put the Sun Devils at 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the Big 12, a remarkable turnaround from last season's 3-9 record. As Dillingham has noted many times, the margins are slim in the Big 12 - a handful of plays either way could result in a 6-6 or 10-2 record. We'll see how it plays out.
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Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.