What does Colorado's win mean for Arizona State's Big 12 football championship game hopes?
The first domino has fallen.
The Colorado Buffaloes (9-3, 7-2) took care of business Friday in a 52-0 blowout victory over Oklahoma State. With the win the Buffaloes still have a shot to earn a berth in next weekend's Big 12 football championship game.
But in order to get in Colorado needs two of the two-loss Big 12 teams to lose on Saturday. Those teams are Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State.
Here's how the top of the standings looks heading into Saturday's games:
- Colorado (7-2) - beat Oklahoma State 52-0
- Arizona State (6-2) - at Arizona (2-6)
- Iowa State (6-2) - vs. Kansas State (5-3)
- BYU (6-2) - vs. Houston (4-7)
- Baylor (5-3) - vs. Kansas (4-4)
- Kansas State (5-3)
- TCU (5-3) - at Cincinnati (3-5)
- Texas Tech (5-3) - vs. West Virginia (5-3)
- West Virginia (5-3)
It's feasible that Arizona State could stumble on the road at rival Arizona, and Iowa State could lose a thriller to a very good Kansas State team. It's hard to see BYU losing to Houston, which means — in this fantasy scenario — BYU and Colorado would be tied atop the conference at 7-2 and would play in the championship game.
How Arizona State Gets In
Just win, baby. And hope BYU wins.
If BYU loses to Houston, the three-team tiebreaker scenarios get complex. Here they are, straight from the Big 12 office:
- If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
--> If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State will play in the championship
--> Otherwise: Colorado vs. Arizona State will play in the championship
If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State will play in the championship
So yeah, it's all much easier to sort if BYU beats Houston. If that happens, then all Arizona State needs to do is beat Arizona to get in.
Arizona State's Most Likely Opponent?
The Sun Devils most likely opponent in the Big 12 title game is Iowa State. All the Cyclones need to do is beat Kansas State, and they're in.
But if the Cyclones lose to the Jayhawks — and BYU beats Houston — Arizona State would play BYU in the championship game.
If both Iowa State and BYU lose, the Sun Devils would play Colorado in the title game.
Could ASU Still Get an At-Large Berth in the CFP?
If Arizona State is impressive on Saturday, and impressive in a loss in the Big 12 title game next weekend, it's possible the Sun Devils could still get an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff.
There's still a lot of football left to be played, and No. 17 Tulane's loss to Memphis on Thursday cracked the door open for a Big 12 team to move into the CFP at-large field. Several teams in the top 15 face tough games this weekend, including No. 6 Miami at Syracuse, No. 5 Notre Dame at USC, No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt and No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson.
If we see more upsets this weekend — and Arizona State wins convincingly — the CFP committee will have no choice other than to move the Sun Devils into the top 12.
But that's just icing on the cake. To get into the Big 12 championship game, ASU just needs to win. And hope BYU wins.
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Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.