Bob's Bold Prediction: Hagen Smith Will Be MLB All-Star

Sky's limit for Arkansas' dominant All-American pitcher following No. 5 draft selection

Arkansas Razorbacks pitcher Hagen Smith on the mound against Kansas State at Baum-Walker Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Michael Morrison-allHOGS Images

Hagen Smith is the best pitcher in Razorback history, bar none. Hard to imagine anyone arguing that point and it seems obvious he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher to come through the Arkansas program.

All Smith has to do to reach his vast potential — sounds easy, huh — is follow his own blueprint of hard work and continuing to mature, on the mound and off the field. He did that in amazing fashion to produce a startling spike in improvement from his sophomore to junior season at Arkansas.

It's amazing to say he improved dramatically considering Smith earned All-American honors as a sophomore in 2023. But he earned that and more in 2024, claiming National Pitcher of the Year honors.

It added up to him being the No. 5 pick in the Major League Baseball draft Sunday night by the Chicago White Sox. Fans of the Kansas City Royals, who had the sixth pick, and the St. Louis Cardinals, who chose seventh, might wish Smith had lasted at least another few minutes in the draft.

Only two Razorbacks have ever been drafted higher than Smith. Jeff King was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1986 draft; the two-time All-American led the Hogs to the 1985 College World Series. Heston Kjerstad was the second overall pick in 2020. The other top 10 picks were Kevin McReynolds at No. 6 in 1981 and Andrew Benintendi seventh in 2015.

So, what's the ceiling for Smith? How about making the American League All-Star team? There is precedent to do it quickly, as we'll discuss, but how does Smith get there? Same way he made that jump from his sophomore year to junior season. It means remaining focused, doing the work in the weight room, being the first guy into work, and continuing to mature both physically and mentally.

That "makeup" along with his talented left arm and 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame will likely make him an All-Star on the biggest stage. That, and staying healthy, which is always the biggest factor. He came back from an arm injury as a high school sophomore to have Tommy John surgery and threw seven no-hitters as a Texas high school senior.

Had he not shown such a strong commitment to Arkansas and coach Dave Van Horn, he likely would've been drafted in the top three rounds in 2021. But Smith became a Hog, and dazzled fans since coming on campus.

How good is Smith? No less an authority than former star Razorback pitcher Bill Bakewell puts him second to none among the stars he's seen pitch in college games.

Bakewell saw Smith up close the last three years. He and wife Susan have been UA baseball season-ticket holders for 36 years, and their seats are close enough to the screen behind the plate to hear the buzz on Smith's upper-90s astball.

As noted, Bakewell isn't just a rabid Razorback rooter. He's one of the best relief pitchers in Hog history and enjoyed one of the finest seasons ever when he allowed a measly 12 hits in 31 innings back in 1977. That's still the Arkansas single-season record. A member of the Hogs' first College World Series team, Bakewell was inducted into the UA Sports Hall of Honor in 2022.

Asked about Smith, Bakewell spoke glowingly during the NCAA Regional at Baum Stadium last month.

"I've seen lots of guys come through here, from the old Southwest Conference days through the SEC for 30 years," he said. "I've seen the best, like (David) Price (of Vanderbilt) and (Paul) Skenes (of LSU). I think the year Smith had (in 2024) was better than them all. I think he was more dominant."

High praise, indeed. Skenes, last year's pitcher of the year in college baseball, was the No. 1 overall pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023. Amazingly, and deservedly, he will start the MLB All-Star game Tuesday night less than a year after being drafted and 13 months after leading LSU to the national championship.

Smith has been favorably compared to Skenes by lots of others, not just Bakewell. His fastball isn't quite as good as Skenes, who has hit 100 on the radar gun but Smith's wipeout slider is just as effective.

Both are terrific athletes. Skenes, who played at the Air Force Academy before transferring to LSU, not only pitched but started 28 games as DH, 18 at catcher, and two at first base.

Both are young; Skenes turned 22 in May and Smith won't be 21 until August 19. So, Smith has room to grow, much as he did in the last year while maturing on the mound and off through his time with Team USA in the summer of 2023.

Few pitchers in the last couple years have been seriously compared to Skenes. Smith, his former rival, is one of those. Can Smith follow Skenes' blueprint and race through the minor leagues to debut in The Show by next summer? It's possible.

Some speculate the White Sox might even bring Smith to the big club by the end of this season. Not likely. After a long college season, and don't forget he pitched last summer for Team USA, the team on the south side of Chicago will be cautious with their star prospect.

After all, they have high hopes for Hagen Smith. They figure he'll eventually be an All-Star and hope he helps lead their young core of players back to the playoffs. They invested a lot with that No. 5 pick, and Smith will be rewarded handsomely, likely somewhere in the $8 million range, give or take. The Sox also want to cash in when Smith hits it big.

HOGS FEED:

• Smart's not smart moment shows Pittman way to fix last season's issue

• Calipari possibly in mix for another 2024 guard

• If Pittman chooses to be ESPN analyst after football, he has new lesson to learn from Saban

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