Numbers Provide 2024 Hogs Hope for CWS, but Disturbing Once in Omaha

Everything fans have thought about current Razorbacks true, but only half the time

Arkansas Razorbacks catcher Hudson White delivers a two-run homer in the series finale against Mississippi State in Fayetteville back in mid-May. / Craven Whitlow-allHOGS Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – The common thought on the Arkansas baseball team all season has been that it's a team that doesn't hit the ball well, doesn't score a lot of runs, and takes both those ideas to an extreme when Razorbacks' ace Hagan Smith is on the mound.

It turns out the data proves all that to be true. At least with one caveat – the Hogs can't be playing at Baum-Walker Stadium.

Arkansas is 7-8 in true road games and 10-9 when factoring in neutral sites. At home, the Hogs are 33-3.

There's a major reason for the discrepancy and it all has to do with how historically bad the Razorbacks are on the road while simultaneously being so historically good at home. Since 2021, no Dave Van Horn team has hit the ball better in Baum-Walker.

Here is a chart of how the past four Arkansas teams have hit in SEC series played in Fayetteville.

HOME	2021	2022	2023	Avg.	2024
Runs	80	85	89	84.6	95
Hits	100	120	120	113.3	126
Game 1 Runs	24	27	24	25	21

Probably much to the surprise of a lot of Arkansas fans, the current team drove in more runs and produced more hits at home than the previous three teams. Perhaps most shocking was how bad that 50-win 2021 team performed in Buam-Walker, driving in 15 fewer runs than the current Hogs and 26 fewer hits.

What's not surprising is how little run support Smith received at home compared to previous seasons. This may be the best Arkansas has had in scoring runs at home, but the drop-off when the Hogs' No. 1 starter is on the mound is significant

When the chart is flipped in favor of road games, the contrast between teams is not only stark, it should be disturbing to Arkansas fans. While the previous statistics provide hope the Razorbacks can get through the regional and super regional in Fayetteville, the following numbers provide little hope once they arrive in Omaha.

AWAY	2021	2022	2023	Avg.	2024
Runs	112	84	106	100.7	62
Hits	138	157	127	140.6	116
Game 1 Runs	34	34	39	35.7	18

Van Horn's previous teams dialed in on the road, especially in 2021. That team didn't lose a single Game 1 on an SEC opponents' field and routinely put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard throughout the game.

Meanwhile, in 2022, Arkansas had its best season hitting the ball, but couldn't get runners across in scoring position. Still, far and away the worst Razorbacks team in this span at both hits and runs is the 2024 group.

As for run support on the road for Smith, the drop-off is steep. While the other three teams averaged – not a high, averaged – 36 runs per five SEC road games for their ace, the current team provides literally half that amount.

Last season's starter, Hunter Hollan, enjoyed nearly eight runs per game to help ease the pressure to be perfect away from Baum-Walker. Smith gets 3.6 runs per game with which to work, and it should be noted that 10 of the 18 runs Arkansas has put up with him on the mound came in a single game against Kentucky.

It was huge news that the Razorbacks actually showed offense against the Wildcats in a Game 1. Beyond that one microburst, the Hogs have only provided Smith two runs per game on the road in the SEC.

So, for those to whom such trends really matter, it's a good sign for the first two rounds of the college baseball playoffs. Arkansas has its best chance of the past four years of making it to Omaha when entering the postseason if the numbers hold up.

However, once they get there, perhaps the Hogs squeeze out a 1-0 or 2-1 win in the opener, but beyond that, there's little reason to believe wins are coming. The hot bats from Fayetteville will dry out in the blazing heat of the Great Plains in Omaha.

The numbers say it's pretty much unavoidable. It will be up to Van Horn and his Hogs to get caught up in the emotion of the event and prove themselves to be otherwise.

HOGS FEED:

• Hogs plan to convert former Army quarterback signee to wide receiver

• Smith picks up SEC pitcher of the year honors

• Razorbacks Signee Knox Displays Incredible Will Test Fans' Tolerance of Trash Talk

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