Does ESPN’s Rating System Favor Razorbacks More Than Betting Sites?

Razorbacks likely favored more than usual by ESPN

Nov 18, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman during the fourth quarter against the FIU Panthers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas won 44-20. / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Like most betting sites, ESPN lacks much confidence in the Razorbacks this fall, per its Football Power Index model.

Arkansas sits with a 4.6 grade which ranks No. 44 amongst college football as a whole. That number doesn’t sound terrible until realizing that equates to No. 14 in the newly expanded SEC. The Razorbacks are projected to finish with a record of 5.5-6.5. Basically, that projects a third losing season under coach Sam Pittman and second straight regular season under .500.

Strength of schedule and other indicators go into this system. To be frank, being the No. 44 ranked team preseason wise isn’t too bad. However, seeing teams like Rutgers, Oregon State, Nebraska, Cal, Iowa State and Maryland all around Arkansas with projected win-loss records indicating bowl eligibility with seven to eight wins is frustrating.

There are plenty of internal factors which work against Arkansas this season. New coaches, influx of more than 20 transfers, former starters transferring and other questions abound for the Razorbacks this fall. Honestly, a 5-7 record this early in June is a fair projection. 

Eight teams that Arkansas is scheduled to face this fall rank ahead of them including non-conference foe Oklahoma State. The week two matchup is in Stillwater with the Cowboys likely home favorites. 

As expected, the Razorbacks have no chance to go undefeated by FPI metrics. There’s a few other SEC teams lumped into the category including Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Auburn has next lowest odds of winning out at 0.1%. 

Three other teams are ahead of Arkansas when it comes to reaching the six win threshold. The Razorbacks hold a 48.4% chance of making a bowl game this fall behind Wyoming, Southern Miss and Northwestern. UCLA is projected as the final bowl eligible team with a 50.9% chance to win six games.

All three teams ahead of Arkansas in this rating system rank behind the Razorbacks. That means if the Hogs played the likes of Wyoming, Southern Miss or Northwestern they would be favored on a neutral field.

Other notes of interest from ESPN’s FPI includes chances on winning divisions and conference. The SEC has now done away with its eastern and western divisions which means every team will bid for a sole conference title. Arkansas is given a slim shot at 0.1% to win its first SEC title. 

Should Arkansas make its unprecedented run through the rigorous SEC, the College Football Playoffs could come calling. Pittman’s team is given a solid percentage of making the expanded 12-team playoff at 2.6%. Even Vanderbilt was given a shot at 0.2%. 

Teams with the best odds are regular bidders of course. Georgia received the highest likelihood at 79% with Oregon, Texas and Ohio State favorites to earn first round byes. Arkansas’ outside shot of making the playoffs is a dream scenario but a potential championship game appearance or even a national title is out of the question. 

HOGS FEED:

• Arkansas fans should see beauty in hurting right now

• As rest of SEC powers through regionals, Razorbacks left to wonder

• Arkansas fans need to put down pitchforks

• Subscribe and follow us on YouTube
• Follow allHOGS on X and Facebook