Don't Trust What the Experts Say on Recruiting: Here's Why

Hogs flip a few high school stars on signing day but portal might matter more

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman was scheduled for hip replacement replacement surgery Tuesday, a procedure that should restore his quality of life. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

From a guy who's had both knees and a left shoulder replaced — the right shoulder is soon to follow, thanks to about a million throws — here's best wishes for a speedy recovery to Arkansas football coach Sam Pittman.

Presumably, all went well with coach Pitt's hip replacement surgery Tuesday. Here's two things I do know:
1 - Sam will be a rehab warrior. As a former athlete, he'll do what it takes to get back to normal, and hopefully better than ever.
2 - He'll be damn glad he had the surgery. Nothing worse than being in pain when a (relatively) routine surgery can return the spring to a guy's step.

It's just a bit crazy the surgery was a day before signing day, but as they say, the hay was in the barn by Tuesday morning. The Arkansas program did flip a few recruits and sign a surprise or three, so in that regard, a good day.

Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr. (10) reaches for LSU Tigers running back Caden Durham during the first quarter at Razorback Stadium on Oct. 19. Sorey led the Hogs in tackles this season. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Shows you what a beast the SEC is, and how tough it is to compete against, when Arkansas ranks 15th out of 16 conference schools in the 2025 recruiting class but is 29th nationally. A new fact of life, and the wild card, involves the transfer portal, where athletes can change schools in a day with no penalty.

In some ways, the transfer portal is more important than signing day because schools land a ready-made starter who can impact the program immediately. That's compared to an 18-year-old projected to be a star two or three years later.

Case in point is Arkansas linebacker Xavian Sorey, who was a 4- or 5-star recruit coming out of high school, depending on which scouting service you prefer. One had him ranked the No. 1 outside linebacker prospect, No. 6 prospect in Florida, and No. 20 prospect nationally.

High praise, indeed. At Georgia, he redshirted that first year, played on special teams the next season, and started twice while playing in 11 games as a redshirt sophomore. He transferred to Arkansas and in his first season, as a junior, he led the Hogs in tackles and will likely be a high NFL draft pick next year.

For some guys, it takes a bit longer to thrive. For some guys, it's a maturity thing. Others are simply stuck behind great players. which frequently happens at a dozen or so elite programs like Georgia -- when they could already be a star other schools.

Of course, rating services aren't always correct. Sometimes they miss by a mile. Case in point: Ryan Leaf was a stud quarterback at Washington State and all the experts argued whether he should be the NFL's overall No. 1 pick or some other guy named Peyton Manning.

All Manning did was follow up a phenomenal college career with a Hall of Fame stint in the NFL that saw him rewrite a few pages of the record book and win two Super Bowls. I won't try to list all his records, some of which have been broken since he retired in 2016. But Manning's five MVP awards are still an NFL record.

What about Ryan Leaf, you ask? Well, he was drafted right behind Manning as the No. 2 pick. His rookie year was a disaster; in nine starts he threw two touchdown passes and 15 interceptions. Yep, those numbers are true.

Leaf started 21 games in his NFL career. Manning started 27 PLAYOFF games. Manning played in 266 regular-season games, starting all but one. Yet, "experts" were divided on which guy would be a better pro.

This is why I have never gotten caught up in the hype of recruiting and signing day. Still, you better believe it matters because recruiting -- and now the transfer portal -- is the lifeblood of any program.

Tom Brady, by the numbers.

Posted by New England Patriots on Saturday, June 1, 2024

Just keep in mind that Tom Brady was the sixth quarterback taken in the 2000 NFL draft. In the sixth round, with 198 players picked ahead of him. He's the only guy whose won seven Super Bowls, though. Yep, recruiting and drafting is clearly an inexact science.

Good thing for Pittman that medical science has improved a lot more than the task of judging talent and what's inside a player. Coach Pitt will be on his feet and running around for a long time before we know the true outcome of Arkansas' signing day.

After all, some will turn out better than expected. And some a lot worse. Check back in two years and you'll know the real story.

HOGS FEED:

• What Razorback signing day means this year | Locked on Razorbacks

• Razorback Star Defensive End Makes Decision on NFL Draft

• Hogs lose offensive weapon to transfer portal

• Recruiting coup, blockbuster schedule puts Hogs in spotlight as season looms

• Arkansas, Illinois draws second largest viewership in last 15 years

• Subscribe and follow us on YouTube
• Follow HogsSI on X and Facebook