ESPN Analytics Predicts Outcome of Battle Line Rivalry Game

Head-to-head comparison, series history makes rivalry game a coinflip ahead of Saturday's game

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman arguing with an official in a game against the LSU Tigers at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Since Arkansas and Missouri began playing each other in 1906, the series has never been close to even.

The Razorbacks have never won on the road in Columbia either which might be a factor in ESPN's analytics model only giving them a 33% chance of pulling a road upset of No. 23 Missouri. Arkansas' previous two trips resulted in a pair of two-point losses, including a 2020 game which Arkansas led with 29 seconds left before a 32-yard field goal by Harrison Mevis secured a Tigers win.

Overall, Missouri holds an 11-4 series lead over Arkansas, including an 8-2 mark since 2014 when the rivalry began. The Razorbacks' last victory against Missouri came in 2021 with a decisive 34-17 victory.

Arkansas alum David Bazzel created the Battle Line Trophy in 2014 that is 4-foot-4, 180 pound silver cutout of the states with a line in the middle which represents the border. Whichever school wins the game each season gets to put its primary colored bar in the slot.

Missouri is in search of its ninth win of the season which will mean its most wins in a two-year span since 2013-14 when the Tigers went to two consecutive SEC championship games. The Razorbacks look to continue distancing themselves from last year's disastrous 4-8 season to notch a second win over a ranked opponent this season.

Head-to-Head	Arkansas Razorbacks	Missouri Tigers
Total Offense	458 yards (No. 9)	393 yards(No. 61)
Total Defense	366 yards (No. 66)	314 yards (No. 21)
Passing Offense	273 yards (No. 24)	225 yards (No. 73)
Passing Defense	251 yards (No. 113)	181 yards (No. 15)
Rushing Offense	185 yards (No. 34)	169 yards (No. 60)
Rushing Defense	115 yards (No. 26)	132 yards (No. 47)
Scoring Offense	31.1 (No. 46)	29.2 (No. 57)
Scoring Defense	24.6 (No. 67)	20 (No. 20)
Turnover Margin	-7 (No. 110	+5 (No. 33)
ESPN Offensive Efficiency	59.1 (No. 47)	61.3 (No. 42)
ESPN Defense Efficiency	67.7 (No. 27)	74.5 (No. 15)

Hogs' Bowl Outlook

There are a couple of bowl destinations in play for the Razorbacks based on whether they win or lose Saturday. Should Arkansas defeat Missouri, the bowl tier could improve to the Tax Act Texas Bowl in Houston Dec. 28 against a representative from the Big 12.

The AutoZone Liberty Bowl could also be in play in Memphis against another Big 12 opponent which would also take place Dec. 28. The Razorbacks have previously played across the border three times in 2009, 2016 and 2022.

If Arkansas falls to 6-6 with a loss, its possible that trip to its first TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl against an American Athletic Conference opponent Dec. 27. Should Arkansas not be selected to travel to Alabama, it could play another AAC team in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa Dec. 23.

HOGS FEED:

• Mizzou quarterback carries numerous characters that made NFL QB star legend

• Departure of former 4-star brings number departing Hogs to four

• Breathe Calipari; Arkansas fans get it more than Kentucky fans

• Pittman can make Green, Singleton decision after season much easier

• Thiero's growth kept Arkansas alive during game against Illini

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