ESPN Analytics, Recruiting History Gives Hogs Strong Chance

Arkansas' strong week one performance came in handy with computer ratings, recruiting data backs up upset shot

Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Isaiah Satenga (6) runs after a catch int he second quarter against the Pine Bluff Golden Lions at War Memorial Stadium. / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Sam Pittman has an opportunity to bring Arkansas out of a two-year hole at Oklahoma State.

ESPN's Football Power Index ratings have been updated with Oklahoma State holding a 55.9% to 44.1% edge over the Razorbacks this weekend inside Boone Pickens Stadium. Even the spread from the 'Worldwide Leader in Sports' has seen its spread line drop a point to (-8.5) in favor of the Cowboys.

Perhaps, Arkansas dispatching Pine Bluff the way it did said something for the amount of talent actually on the roster. The Razorbacks have the No. 26 most talented roster while the Cowboys rank No. 53, according to 247sports.

Anyone following college football the past 20 years would know how Mike Gundy has over-achieved with his roster compared to its recruiting ranking. Gundy has led Oklahoma State to eight double-digit win seasons and not a single losing season dating back to 2005 with only three Top 25 recruiting classes to show for it.

Despite that high clip of winning, his recruiting ranking overall has suffered a mighty drop off recently. The 2022 signing class ranked No. 36 overall with the No. 88 transfer portal haul which has been par for the course in Stillwater.

However, it dropped seven spots in 2023 with a No. 43 signing class and No. 22 in the portal. Oklahoma State's class this fall ranked No. 63 overall with the No. 68 class out of the portal.

Since Gundy arrived as Cowboys coach in 2005, Arkansas hasn't seen the same continuity in Fayetteville. In fact, Houston Nutt was the coach of the Razorbacks when Gundy was hired to replace Les Miles. That means the Razorbacks have brought in six head coaches during the same time period.

However, Arkansas' recruiting has never quite dropped off significantly for years running like Oklahoma State's has. The Razorbacks' average ranking is No. 27 even with a winning percentage that's 8% lower at 193-125 the past 20 seasons.

Arkansas has signed only one class lower than No. 35, which was Chad Morris' 2018 haul that ranked No. 45. The Razorbacks have signed 11 Top 25 classes compared to the Cowboys' three.

There is something to be said for the Pokes' level of success in development of their student-athletes over the past 20 seasons. In similar ways, both Arkansas and Oklahoma State produced magnificent offenses from 2009-12 which had both teams contending for BCS Title berths.

Gundy has held up his end of the deal, but sadly the Razorbacks can't quite say the same. For Pittman, he has an opportunity to climb back in favor with the fanbase with a shocking upset of a ranked Cowboys team.

This game has all the makings of coming down to one possession, which should favor Oklahoma State given Arkansas' struggles of closing in the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks are 6-14 under Pittman in one-score games with a 1-5 record hanging over the program from 2023.

If Pittman, with new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino calling plays, can exorcise its demons, the Razorbacks will be well on their way to winning a non-conference road game.

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