ESPN Analytics Predicts Winner of Razorbacks, Rebels

Arkansas given chance to do what it has before which is knock Ole Miss out of championship contention

Arkansas Razorbacks running back Braylen Russell runs for a big gain against the Tennessee Volunteers at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Michael Morrison-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When time expired Saturday afternoon, Arkansas felt good about where it stood with four games remaining on the schedule. After missing a bowl for the first time under coach Sam Pittman last year things are looking up and trajectory of the Razorbacks program is slowly on the rise being one win from a bowl eligibility.

With Ole Miss coming to Razorback Stadium next Saturday morning it gives Arkansas an opportunity to beef up its bowl resume with another marquee Top 25 victory at home. Former coach Frank Broyles' once coined the phrase “they always remember what you do in November" and the Hogs have a chance of a strong November with a favorable home slate.

ESPN gives Arkansas a 26% shot to upset Ole Miss — a team that needs to win out to still be considered an at-large option for playoff. The Rebels haven't traditionally played well in Fayetteville as their last victory over the Razorbacks there came in 2008 when former coach Houston Nutt returned to the school he coached for 10 seasons.

What ESPN cannot gauge is how unpredictable this rivalry has been through the years. Arkansas knocked Ole Miss out of SEC title contention in back-to-back seasons with a 30-0 rout at home in 2014 and the legendary Henry Heave in 2015.

Since 2008, the series is tied at 8-8 with nine games decided by four points or less. Both games that have been played at Arkansas under Lane Kiffin were dominated by the Razorbacks, including the 2020 game which saw Matt Corral toss six interceptions.

Ole Miss is still considered a strong team ranked No. 7, according to ESPN's Football Power Index model. As the team sits 6-2 overall, analytics say the Rebels are projected to finish 9-3 overall and are favored in each game left including Georgia.

The Razorbacks climbed six spots after their victory over Mississippi State and rank No. 25. As fluid as the changes are, Arkansas is in need of a November miracle to reach the seven win threshold, but are given 98% chance to make a bowl game.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green throws a pass against the LSU Tigers at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

ESPN only favors Arkansas against Louisiana Tech in its final home game of the season. The Razorbacks are given a strong shot of upsetting Missouri with a 44% chance at victory No. 7.

After an explosive offensive performance Saturday, the Razorbacks offensive efficiency grade increased to 68.2 which ranks No. 27 among FBS schools. Defensive struggles in tackling and Bulldogs chunk yardage dropped Arkansas' most consistent unit to No. 26 and No. 10 in the SEC with a score of 72.8.

HOGS FEED:

• Arkansas basketball coach's passionate plea to Hogs' veteran guard

• Calipari's New York City friend saw something new Friday night

• Pittman poised to break decade-plus cycle for Hogs

 • Fland succeeded where freshmen before him failed

• Hogs can officially turn focus to Ole Miss

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