Five Reasons Why Arkansas Will Win at Mississippi State

Overcoming cowbells won't be easy despite Bulldogs' winless record in the SEC

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) escapes a UAB defender during the Hogs' 37-27 victory at Razorback Stadium in the season's third game. Green, a transfer from Boise State, hopes to lead Arkansas to its second SEC road win today at Starkville, Miss. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Arkansas' typically tough schedule included seven games against ranked teams. Silly as it may sound, today's tilt against the school at the bottom of the 16-team SEC standings might be the most important outcome of the season.

Lose, and it's not just a depressing ride home to Fayetteville. The Hogs would face steep odds just to win half their games to meet that seemingly low floor of six wins to qualify for a nondescript bowl game.

Win, and Arkansas coach Sam Pittman breathes a sigh of relief. Beating Mississippi State is far from a given, though.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman laughs during pregame warmups against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Arkansas lost the turnover battle 3-0 and was beaten 21-17 by the Aggies. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Razorbacks have been up and down, good then bad. A win gives the Hogs a 5-3 record, 3-2 in the SEC. It would also set them up to complete the sweep of Mississippi with another victory next week in Fayetteville against No. 18 Ole Miss.

That would be a small taste of Hog heaven for fans. Arkansas is favored by a touchdown but there are several scenarios where the 'Dogs beat the Hogs.

The 11:45 a.m. kickoff usually favors the visiting team, so everyone know long before dinner if the Razorbacks found a way to rebound from last week's disappointing performance. There are those who insist Mississippi State will win, that the Hogs will overlook the weakest SEC team they'll play.

There are a few compelling arguements that Bulldogs will win. Here's how it could happen.

Reason 1:
Messing with an angry dog is always dangerous. Mississippi State is 1-6 overall, 0-6 in the SEC and loser of six straight.

Obviously, they're a terrible football team waiting to be drubbed again, right? Not exactly.

The Bulldogs played Georgia within 10 on the road (41-31) two weeks ago and lost by 10 last week at home to Texas A&M (34-24). Those guys are ranked Nos. 2 and 14.

Reason 2:
Ja'Quinden Jackson, Arkansas' best running back, is sidelined by a persistent ankle injury. Back-up Rodney Hill was listed as questionable on Friday's SEC report. That leaves freshman Braylen Russell, who is 6-1 and 253 pounds with agility, good feet and power. They'll still miss Jackson, the best of the bunch.

Reason 3:
The Hogs are not to be trusted. If they don't turn the ball over, they'll likely win.

That's been the case in every game this season. If they drop it or throw it away two or three times, they're in trouble. Simple as that.

Reason 4:
Mississippi State has won the last two in series and there's value in streaks. The Bulldogs claimed a thriller at Razorback Stadium last year, outscoring the Hogs 7-3.

The year before in Stark Vegas, the 'Dogs romped 40-17. Recent history often means something.

Reason 5:
Cowbell, baby. Cowbell, cowbell and more cowbell.

Presumably an illegal noisemaker according to SEC rules, the MSU faithful get away with it ... all game long. It is the most annoying sound imaginable.

For their sake, the Hogs have to tune it out. Ear plugs might be necessary equipment.

Quasi-Reason 6:
Arkansas kicker Kyle Ramsey won't play because of a groin pull. Matthew Shipley is a capable replacement and some say an upgrade, but Ramsey has done most of the kicking this season.

Shipley, a transfer from Hawaii is 2-for-3 on field goals. He's made a 51-yarder and a chip shot, but missed a 42-yarder.

So, let's reconsider. According to Fox Sports, the Razorbacks have a 71.4% chance of winning.

Let's say the Hogs will win. Here's why:

Reason 1:
No turnovers. In last week's disappointing debacle, Arkansas lost the turnover battle 0-3 in a 34-10 lopsided loss to visiting LSU.

It stands to reason they won't be sloppy Hogs this week. Stay even on turnovers and win. Lose that battle by more than one and, well, see Reason 3 above.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) dives on a fumbled snap against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Sept. 21. The Razorbacks beat the Tigers 24-14. Auburn is 0-4 and shares the SEC cellar with Mississippi State. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Reason 2:
Taylen Green. 'Nuf said.

If the extremely athletic, extremely fast, extremely inconsistent quarterback plays his best ball, this one's already over. His passing proficiency has improved quite a bit since the season began.

However, if he (here it comes again) continues to turn it over, this one's a toss-up.

Reason 3:
The Razorback defense. Almost always solid, sometimes aggressive with the blitz, occasionally sensational and stingy.

If Landon Jackson, the 6-foot-7, 280-pound wrecking ball who is increasingly harassing quarterbacks can do his thing and get help from 10 others, the Hogs could dominate and quiet the cowbells.

Arkansas Razorbacks freshman running back Braylen Russell (0) gains valuable yardage in the first quarter against the Tennessee Volunteers at Razorback Stadium. The Hogs defeated then-No. 4 Tennessee 19-14 for their most impressive victory of the season. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Reason 4:
If Braylen Russell is the second coming of Jerome Bettis. For those who don't know or remember the Hall of Famer from Notre Dame, he starred for the Rams and was especially effective for the Steelers while running for more than 100 yards 50 times.

He helped lead the Steelers to the 2005 Super Bowl title and retired. He weighed 245, give or take a biscuit, and had quick feet. Russell could be Bettis 2.0.

Reason 5:
Big plays. Arkansas has 133 plays of 10-plus yards this season, fifth most in the country. That's an average of 19 per game, compared to last year's average of 14 with 168 in 12 games.

Receiver Andrew Armstrong is a big part of that stat as he's averaging just under 108 yards per outing. Only eight FBS receivers, and two in the SEC, are averaging 100-plus yards a game.

Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Andrew Armstrong (2) makes a catch during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium during the Hogs' 21-17 loss. A&M is tied atop the SEC standings at 4-0 and hosts LSU, 3-0, today. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Every stadium in the SEC makes it tough to escape with a win. However, gut instincts say the Razorbacks play well on the road for the third time and end their losing streak against the Bulldogs.

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