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Latest Ruling Could Kill High School Recruiting for Good

College coaches sound off on type of impact Pavia's ruling will have on future of college athletics

Jacob Davis

Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia celebrates with fans after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at FirstBank Stadium.
Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia celebrates with fans after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. / Butch Dill-Imagn Images
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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — If the transfer portal hadn't killed high school recruiting yet, Wednesday's ruling to extend Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia eligibility could do just that.

Multiple current Razorbacks will be able to benefit from the latest ruling like starters Keyshawn Blackstock, longsnapper Ashton Ngo and cornerback Marquise Robinson. Whether this change is implemented for all or not, this could change college athletics forever.

NCAA president Charlie Baker joined ESPN's Pat McAfee Show Thursday afternoon to discuss the current state of college athletics. He specifically talked about the grand scheme of high school recruiting being heavily impacted with the ebbs and flows of portal recruiting and junior college players not having their time spent in JUCO count against FBS, FCS or Division III eligibility.

(Baker's interview segment begins around the 1 hour, 40 minute mark).

"You're going to create a freight train collision with all the high school kids who would have no place to go," Baker said during his appearance on McAfee's show. "It's not like we're certainly going to grow a whole bunch of new teams, we'll grow some new teams in new sports but be on the margin. But if you suddenly take that four years, and you turn it into six, for some huge percentage of the kids who are there, there's really no place for them coming out of high school."

The can of worms in regard to eligibility issues was opened in 2020 due to COVID, rewarding every player who opted to play not have it count against them. That rewarded many players around the country a sixth year to become 'Super Seniors' which obviously created parity the sport had never seen before.

Last year's court ruling allowed all athletes the ability to transfer as often as they would like without having to sit out a year. Transfers not being penalized, school's looking for production over potential and the new 'Pavia Rule' has changed college sports, especially football, forever.

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said it best during his Wednesday press conference leading up to his team's appearance in the Music City Bowl in Nashville against Iowa.

"I think everybody has to get ride of that mindset and understand that [College Football] is now a six-month free agent business and every six months there's free agency, and you do the very best you can to build a roster you can with that kind of mindset or with that kind of thinking," Drinkwitz said Wednesday."

Teams are no longer afforded the opportunity to recruit for depth purposes anymore simply because of NIL, promise of immediate playing time and portal combat. Drinkwitz encourages fans of the sport to condition their minds to conform to a new way of thinking.

"That old style of thinking of, 'hey, I'm going to have 85 scholarships, and I'm going to recruit four, four deep at each position, and once this guy leaves, then the next guy comes' that's not really realistic anymore. Our job is to build the best team that we can, so that when we start spring practice in April, we have the best opera or March, we have the best team possible, knowing that in April, there's another free agency period, and your team could look drastically different."

The biggest takeaway from his message to fans is college coaches now prioritize players based off previous production over potential. That means unless a true freshman can be an instant impact player, banking on a high schooler's potential is not what it was just five years ago.

"We value production over potential, And you know, that's going to be a key driving force for us in the decisions we make with player acquisition and player development."

The 'Pavia Rule' will ultimately impact college football within the next three years as spots begin to fill out in the FBS. Perhaps, more high schoolers will take their opportunities in conferences like the Sun Belt, MAC, American or Mountain West before trickling down to FCS or even Division III which could make NFL scouts, college assistants end up working harder to identify talent.

Coach Steve Sarkisian spoke with reporters Thursday about his disagreement with Pavia's ruling. The Texas coach began his college playing career at El Camino College, a JUCO in California where he excelled as an All-American quarterback.

“I totally disagree with the…determination on this,” Sarkisian said during his press conference ahead of the College Football Playoff. “We chose to go to Junior College football. That’s where we wanted to start and play our careers. So, I don’t understand it at all. We’re going to have guys 28-29 years old playing college football. What’s the point? I don’t get it. I don’t understand it. I totally disagree with it.”

Another factor in the midst of eligibility matters is roster limits as a result of the NCAA's house settlement which could see thousands of scholarships being removed. College football rosters are being cut from an average size of 121 to a maximum of 105 players with concerns about player safety and walk-on spots becoming extinct, spots that have been key to the overall health of the sport for decades.

The richer conferences like the SEC and Big Ten will continue to thrive under the new revenue sharing model thanks to million-dollar television contracts. College sports could possibly be one step closer to one mega league being created to benefit those currently in the SEC/Big Ten along with select programs around the country who fit its criteria.

Creation of a model that favors athletes in college with less roster spots available can't possibly fail. Maybe the NCAA knew exactly what it was doing long ago penalizing athletes with a mandatory redshirt after transferring, limiting players to a maximum of five years and restricting NIL.

It's not Pavia's fault, the Commodore's quarterback phenom fought for what he thought was right and he came away the big winner. JUCO players across the country could now have an opportunity to earn more time to prove themselves and earn cash of their name, image and likeness which is what college athletics is all about nowadays anyway.

HOGS FEED:

• Arkansas Edge's holiday auction brings little NIL cheer

• Former Hogs' commit enters transfer portal after one season with rival

• BREAKING: Hogs grab major offensive linemen from portal

• Facing first-time quarterbacks always risky for teams in bowls

• How Green is defying transfer trends | Locked on Razorbacks

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Jacob Davis
JACOB DAVIS

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