Path Easier Now for Razorbacks to Have Reasonable Shot at CFP

Days of having to win all but one game to reach playoffs long gone with expanded field and Hogs can do that

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman during the second quarter against the UAB Blazers at Razorback Stadium. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — If you had to think Arkansas couldn't afford to lose a game in early September and not make the playoffs, last weekend should have changed that. You can bet just about everybody will have a loss or two.

"Don't judge a team off one game in the SEC," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Saturday night. His Bulldogs had just squirmed through a 13-12 win over Kentucky that was the poster child for a struggle win.

Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois the week before. Teams have had unexpected losses this year and there will likely be more and it's all due to a little leveling of the talent disparity. Not a lot, but enough to make it interesting.

When there was just a four-team or two-team playoff, the Razorbacks couldn't afford more than one loss and have a shot at making that. It has never happened, although they did come close a couple of times since they joined the SEC in 1992.

In 1998, the loss to Tennessee didn't knock the Hogs out of the first BCS championship game. A loss to Mississippi State the next week bumped them out of the SEC Championship game and a win there likely would have set up a rematch with the Vols.

They had more chances in 2006 and again in 2011, but a loss at the end ruined any shot at playing for a championship because, quite simply, there weren't enough spots to fit everybody in.

Arkansas had a shot in 2011 when Bobby Petrino took a team ranked No. 3 to Baton Rouge to play No. 1, then got kicked sideways by LSU, 41-17. Since the Razorbacks were whipped by No. 2 Alabama, 38-14, in September, they weren't playing in that title game.

Now the field is large enough three or four SEC teams are favorites right now to get in the CFP. The Hogs still have a way to get there because they don't even have to win all of their eight league games, starting at Auburn on Saturday.

The season has changed. Fans have long thought 10 wins was the measuring stick for a great year. These days just winning eight or nine would be a remarkable season. They reached that in 2021, going to the Outback Bowl against Penn State.

The Razorbacks just haven't been able to get past 10 wins in a regular season. Now they don't have to for a shot at the title (and that's all you want — a chance).

Winning eight games a year, minimum, is the standard fans should insist on getting every year. There might be a clunker year every decade, but winning 10 a couple of times in the same decade is more possible these days than ever.

If the Hogs win 10 games, they have a great shot at getting into the CFP with 14 teams going now. As the SEC turns more and more into the NFL junior varsity division, teams don't have to win them all to have a shot and everybody is probably going to have a loss or two.

That doesn't eliminate you from a national championship. Arkansas should be able to reach that level every so often, but make a good bowl game every year.

There aren't any valid excuses not to do that, unless someone wants to provide some transparency other than unknown numbers the powers that be have allegedly gotten from talking to other people.

You can believe that or not. It's your call.

But the results will show us all how seriously they want to win in football these days.

HOGS FEED:

• Hogs hoping defensive coordinator being back solves issues

• Time sorta officially set for Arkansas game against Texas A&M

• Pittman doesn't like making excuses, but no way around it now

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