Possible Win Total for Razorbacks to Receive Playoff Bid

Scenario for Hogs to make noise in College Football Playoff discussion if Pittman's team continues to win

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman cheers with fans as he walks off the field as Auburn Tigers take on Arkansas Razorbacks at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas Razorbacks, College Football Playoff contenders. That's a phrase not many fans had on their college football bingo card to start the season. 

It does have a sweet ring to it with the Razorbacks sitting at 3-1 (1-0 SEC) through the early part 2024. Of course, there’s plenty of games that need to play out but before labeling Arkansas as contenders. 

From a few fan's perspectives, Coach Sam Pittman’s team shouldn’t sniff a possibility of the playoffs because the team isn’t very good -- but aren't bad either. Analytics speak differently and with Arkansas’ remaining schedule strength combined with total team talent and how teams are favored in upcoming matchups. 

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How many more regular season wins does each team need to be included in the CFP at-large discussion? pic.twitter.com/JMqdIjJGRX

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) September 26, 2024

Five wins would get the Razorbacks at least into the discussion for a College Football Playoff at-large bid, according to Kelley Ford Ratings on X. Making the playoffs would be an unimaginable hill to climb considering where Arkansas was in preseason projections. 

ESPN Analytics predicted the Razorbacks as one of the first few teams out of bowl contention with a 5-7 record. Analytically, Arkansas is now projected to finish with a 7-5 record and sits No. 23 in the football power index poll. 

The Razorbacks have climbed from No. 44 with a less than 50% chance of winning six games and limited playoff hopes. Now, Arkansas holds a 77% chance of reaching bowl eligibility with a near 4% chance of making the playoffs. 

Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino in season opener against UAPB in Little Rock, Ark. / Michael Morrison-Hogs on SI Images

If Arkansas truly needs five wins to hypothetically make the field of 12, five teams that are slotted ahead of them are on the schedule. Those teams include No. 1 Texas, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 16 Missouri and No. 17 LSU and No. 18 Texas A&M, respectively.

In order for Arkansas to comfortably make the playoffs it must defeat Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech along with three other teams mentioned above. Best case scenario for the Razorbacks is to take care of business at home between Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss or Texas. Then, take down Texas A&M this weekend or upset Missouri on the road to close the season.

Defeating the Aggies this weekend at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas would be a great start to enhancing Arkansas' playoff resume. A win would also do wonders for team confidence going into a home night game against the Volunteers next Saturday, Oct. 5.

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