Why Are Hogs Suprisingly Favored Against Texas Tech?

How did Vegas reach such outlandish conclusion for Arkansas Razorbacks in Liberty Bowl?

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes in the first quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — It was so convincing as an error that there was little thought to delete it.

The story had been turned in during the early morning hours and drowsiness is undefeated when it comes to causing unforced errors by even the best of reporters in stories. Texas Tech being the underdog against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl was quickly highlighted and deleted without much of a thought.

However, a short while after the story published sans Red Raiders underdog status, a haunting nagging feeling crept in. Sports Illustrated writer Bob Stephens is a veteran writer and tends to err on the side of being overly meticulous when it comes to making sure his facts are right, so, while the deletion of the claim that Vegas has Arkansas favored over Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl essentially changed nothing in the story, certainty was needed.

Turns out, as outlandish as it may seem when the story was submitted earlier this week, Stephens was right. The Razorbacks are favored by 2.5 over Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl. With no gamblers on staff, point spreads rarely get anything more that a cursory glance at best.

However, with Texas Tech at 8-4 with wins over second round playoff team Arizona State, an almost playoff bound Iowa State and a win over an Oklahoma State team for which the Hogs account for 1/3 of its wins, there was no reason to think about point spreads in terms of who is favored to actually win. Arkansas has a depleted receiving corp, backfield and offensive line, all important to actually scoring points.

The NFL draft and transfer portral not only deprived offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino of weapons, but Ole MIss, Michigan, Purdue, SMU, Oklahoma, Texas and Kentucky ran off with 11 of the Hogs' top players. On top of that, Arkansas coach Sam Pittman has been buried in transfer portal business in an effort to make sure 2025 at least begins with a reason for his team to think there's at least a chance at a winning record.

So, what has been going on out in Lubbock to make oddsmakers think the Razorbacks should win this thing?

LACK OF A QUARTERBACK

Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton (2) throws against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

As would be advised by even the worst agents, players with NFL prospects shouldn't risk potential injury in bowl games. While Behren Morton won't be featured in the upcoming draft, the numbers he put up this season make him a strong prospect come next draft.

Morton tortured defenses by throwing for 3,325 yards and 27 touchdowns. He was good enough to make them a legitimate threat to claim the Big 12's lone playoff spot.

The injury came against TCU back in October. Although he was able to return for the rest of the season, it was decided it was best not only for Morton's NFL future, but the future of the Red Raiders program as well. Skipping out on a meaningless bowl game greatly increases the odds he will be ready for spring practices where he will get to build chemistry with a surprisingly strong transfer portal class headed to Lubbock.

In Morton's place will be freshman Will Hammond, a former 4-star and Top 300 recruit from Hutto, Texas. Hammond is 15-of-23 on the year for 191 yards. For perspective, former Arkansas back-up Malachi Singleton was 21-of-28 for 358 yards.

TOP RECEIVER GONE

Texas Tech Red Raiders tight end Josh Kelly (3) rushes against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

As is the case for Arkansas and pretty much every other team not in the playoffs, Texas Tech's leading receiver won't be playing in the Liberty Bowl. Josh Kelly, who led the Red Raiders in overall receiving yards and catches with 89 for 1,023, is off preparing for the NFL draft.

However, it should be noted that options Nos. 2 and 3, Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin, are expected to play. Douglas averaged 14 yards per catch and Eakin 13.4, both significantly higher than Kelly, and they each put up six touchdowns while combining for 100 catches for 1,367 yards.

That means there won't be nearly as much drop-off at the position, if any, when compared to Arkansas. Quarterback Taylen Green has only one of his top four receivers from this season, Isaac TeSlaa, as an available throwing target.

It should also be noted that Taj Brooks, Texas Tech leading rusher an a significant threat in the passing game, is in Memphis and technically slated to play. He's declared for the NFL draft, so head coach Joey McGuire has been reluctant to declare Brooks will carry a heavy workload.

TOP ASSISTANTS GONE

Texas Tech's defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter gives instructions during football practice at the Sports Performance Center. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Texas Tech fired defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter and secondary coach Marcel Yates at the end of the season. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Zach Kittley left to take the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic. However, it should be noted that while interims will officially make the calls during the actual game, new coordinators Shiel Wood and Mack Leftwich have been around and available for input.

So, while Vegas may lean heavily toward Bobby Petrino and Travis Williams against a pair of interims, it's not as lopsided as it looks on paper from a coaching experience standpoint. And, yes, Texas Tech is without its starting quarterback, leading receiver and a couple of part-time starters in the offensive line, but Arkansas barely has receivers, tight ends or running backs.

Coaching experience can only go so far. There has to actually be someone to coach.

PERCEIVED HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

Because Memphis is so close to Arkansas it has a counterpart to its west just across the border, the thought is Razorbacks fans will pack out the Liberty Bowl. After all, surely an underserved portion of the fan base in the eastern half of the state will seize the opportunity to see their beloved Hogs.

However, there are two factors at play here. First off is a solid case of apathy combined with a Liberty Bowl stadium that is currently a giant construction zone.

Arkansas fans are showing mild curiosity in what's being built for next season, but haven't shown much interest in what's left of a 6-6 team. Plus, the last time the Hogs showed up in Memphis, the plumbing didn't even work as portable restrooms crowded the landscape.

Not exactly a solid combination for families to spend hundreds of dollars on bowl game tickets to give out as Christmas gifts. It's preferred by most to simply watch it on ESPN with the option to do literally anything other than spend a day in Memphis should the game go poorly.

The second factor is the disadvantage Arkansas faces if Razorbacks fans do fill up the stadium. The last thing the Hogs need is for it to feel like Fayetteville.

The past several seasons have proven Pittman's teams perform at a much higher level in hostile environments than in Razorback Stadium. It's almost a guaranteed loss when a current Power Four school (or Liberty) comes to town.

The only saving grace for Arkansas is Pittman seems to find a way to make creme brulee out of the stinkiest of delta mud come bowl season. His teams always appear prepared and convinced non-playoff bowl games really matter.

DEFYING VEGAS

Still, despite all of this, it is hard not to believe Vegas has this one wrong. There are so many red flags against Arkansas that indicate there's too much of a mountain to climb to pull this one out.

Yes, all those players who haven't had a chance to shine are going to be overly motivated to put out good tape, but internal motivation can only go so far. Surely they have wanted to do as much all season long, yet have rarely earned that opportunity.

In an off-field war of attrition, Texas Tech has won the battle. Unless Green, Rodney Hill, Braylen Russell and Issac TeSLaa combine to each play out of their minds despite a makeshift offensive line, there's not a lot of reason to think this one is going to go the Razorbacks' way.

However, there are no other games going on at that time and tickets to the live action "Lion King" prequel are sold out pretty much everywhere, so fans will just have to hope for the best because there's no other alternative.

HOGS FEED:

• Options for improving roster beginning to run thin for Pittman

• Hogs to see former teammate again in 2025, not in colors expected

• Hogs sign transfer away from SEC rival for Christmas

• Russell can't fully win back fans at Liberty Bowl, but can definitely lose them

• Primer: While football fumbles, SEC basketball dominates landscape

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