Job Most Likely to Come Open in SEC Will Surprise Most

Top 5 football coaches who have best odds of moving out after next season
Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman shakes hands with Missouri Tigers coach Eil Drinkwitz after the game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium. Arkansas won 34-17.
Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman shakes hands with Missouri Tigers coach Eil Drinkwitz after the game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium. Arkansas won 34-17. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When it came to SEC football coaches, last season got to serve as a mulligan.

Because of unanswered questions as it pertains to revenue sharing at season's end, plus an unwieldy schedule that snapped the high school signing period and the transfer portal immediately onto the end of the football season, it was virtually impossible to get rid of a coach and not sink the program for at least the next two seasons.

That's why there were very few coaching moves across all of college football and literally none in the SEC despite the protests of certain fan bases. However, the 2025 season sets itself up to be one of almost guaranteed movement among the SEC coaching ranks, although not all may be because of firings.

There will be openings at other prominent Power Four programs in November, and after seeing how difficult it's going to be to get into the playoffs and make noise out of the 16-team SEC, some coaches may be looking for more of an SMU/Arizona State style approach to adding playoff success to their resumes.

Obviously, there is a lot to happen between the end of January and Thanksgiving weekend. After all, few saw Billy Napier making it to the end of October the way things started at Florida last season.

However, the magic of DJ Lagway restored hope in Gainesville, and as a result Napier isn't even on the list this time around because, while no one is going to hire him away, he appears to be in good shape to not get fired. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at the five SEC jobs most likely to be open next season.

#5 SAM PITTMAN, Arkansas

Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman on the sidelines against Ole Miss.
Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman on the sidelines against the Ole Miss Rebels at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

Oddly enough, a lot of the usual suspects just don't fit the profile anymore, so the No. 5 spot was difficult to determine. It came down to Alabama's Kalen Deboer and Arkansas' Sam Pittman. Since there's a better than zero chance Deboer turns things around in his second season in Tuscaloosa or that the Crimson Tide are willing to at least give him three years to make sure he has guys to run his system, the nod goes to Pittman.

That's not necessarily for negative reasons. PIttman grew his win total by 75% last season and has qualified for a bowl in all but one of his five seasons in Fayetteville, winning all three where teams have dared to actually show up despite having heavily depleted rosters.

If he matches last season's win total, but does it during the regular season against a brutal schedule that throws in last year's national runner-up Notre Dame just for fun, then he's probably safe from being fired. If he can squeeze out eight wins by season's end, he may even get an extension.

However, because it's Arkansas and fans there tend to overreact with each individual game rather than taking in the season as a whole, a couple of bad weeks could tip the scales with boosters and set the coaching search train in motion. Also just as likely, Pittman could have a good season similar to his 2021 year and want to go out on a positive note, leaving the program in much better shape than he inherited it while he slides off into the sunset for a few cold ones alongside the lake in Hot Springs.


#4 BRIAN KELLY, LSU

LSU head coach Brian Kelly looks on during the second half against Baylor at NRG Stadium.
LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly looks on during the second half against the Baylor Bears at NRG Stadium. The Tigers defeated the Bears 44-31. / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

By no stretch of the imagination is Brian Kelly doing a bad job at LSU. However, he felt like such an odd fit when the hire was announced, that it wasn't hard to imagine Tigers fans getting tired of him if Kelly wasn't borderline perfect at all times down in Baton Rouge.

Kelly's first two seasons got off to a good start. He went 10-4 in Year 1 and unexpectedly won the SEC West, creating a wave of momentum after finding something in quarterback Jayden Daniels while finishing No. 16.

The following year, LSU technically finished with a better winning percentage, although that's because the Tigers missed the SEC championship game. They finished 10-3 and Daniels won the Heisman, but the No. 12 final ranking after preseason hype had Kelly's team in the Top 5 left fans feeling as if the team underachieved slightly.

Last season, with time to get his own players into the fold, but without the explosive play making abilities of Daniels, Kelly couldn't solve the weakest group of SEC teams in decades. The Tigers slid to 8-4 and closed the season unranked.

This had fans fuming. The seat is now hotter than ever.

Kelly doesn't have the connection with fans that sometimes prolongs tenures through a rough year or two. If the Tigers fall flat again in their big non-conference game, this year a season opener at Clemson, and then struggle with what is projected to be one of the easiest SEC slates in the conference next year, there will be a lot of pressure to move on.

If Kelly stumbles around and loses to the likes of Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Texas A&M, something that is very possible, the coaching search will be on in Baton Rouge. There's no way he survives that.

#3 MARK STOOPS, Kentucky

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops runs onto the field before the game against Auburn.
Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops runs onto the field before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Kroger Field. / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Mark Stoops is the Houston Nutt of Kentucky football. Like Nutt was at Arkansas during the height of the Hogs' basketball power, he's been there a long time, he'll hit a series of average years, and then out of nowhere, he will have a big season that fires the fans up and gets them thinking anything is possible.

However, just like Nutt, he's dabbled in the job portal, making fans feel a bit unappreciated and uneasy, leading to an awkward relationship, especially when the road gets bumpy. Taking, but not taking the job at Texas A&M in an odd fiasco last year ruffled a lot of loyal feathers.

Stoops then followed with a 4-8 campaign that ended eight consecutive years of bowl games. His two saving graces were signing a new deal after "deciding" to not go to Texas A&M and an upset win over Ole Miss that kept Lane Kiffin and the Rebels out of the playoffs.

It should be noted that after Nutt went 4-7, he followed up with a 10-win season that included an upset of No. 2 Auburn and an SEC championship game appearance before concluding with a close loss to Tom Brady and Michigan in the Capital One Bowl. If Stoops can bounce back like that, which he has shown at times he can do, then all will be right again in Lexington.

That will be much harder to accomplish for Stoops than Kelly over at LSU. That's because from September through November, there's a very real chance Kentucky goes 0-5 as the Wildcats face a run of South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Auburn.

Only Texas and Tennessee are home games. If the wheels fall off at the point in the season, as improbable as it would have seemed two years ago, there will be heavy calls for a new voice in Kentucky.

#2 BRENT VENABLES, Oklahoma

Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables reacts prior to a game against Missouri.
Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables reacts prior to a game against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Of the jobs to come open involuntarily in the SEC, this is the one most likely to happen. Had it not been for an improbably blowout of Alabama late in the season, the Sooners might have broken the mold of collective wisdom and pulled the trigger on Brent Venables at the end of last season.

While Lincoln Riley hasn't exactly burned up the college football world since he bolted for USC in an effort to run away from facing an SEC schedule, he's been hard to replace in Norman. Venables was the logical choice when time came to bring in a new leader.

During his time at Clemson, he faced the SEC elite on an almost yearly basis. On the few occassions the Tigers won, Venables' defense was a big reason why.

He was as experienced as it gets for what it takes to win in the SEC without hiring a coach directly from an SEC coaching tree. Plus, he already knew Oklahoma and the Sooner culture.

However, fans continue to have a pre-NIL set of expectations in Norman and it hasn't appeared Venables has been able to prep Oklahoma for the grind of the SEC with the type of war chest needed to compete for talent with the rest of the league. There were glimmers of hope, like when the Sooners snatched up quarterback Jackson Arnold out of the heavily contested Dallas-Fort Worth recruiting grounds.

However, that didn't pan out and the SEC is an inside-out league. Offensive and defensive lines have to be loaded with premium athletes stacked with premium athletes behind them.

That costs a lot more money that Oklahoma has been able to pull together on a consistent basis. Getting into bidding wars with Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia and Alabama just isn't a winning formula.

As a result, Venables has posted losing seasons in two of his three years at the helm. It should be noted that prior to his arrival, Oklahoma hadn't had a losing season since late last century during the end of the John Blake era.

Considering the SEC hosed the Sooners on the first two football schedules as a perceived bow to the incoming Texas Longhorns, odds look long that Oklahoma will pull together a winning record next year. Even if they do, 7-6 is probably the best Sooners fans can reasonably expect, which just isn't enough to avoid making a move at head coach.

#1 ELI DRINKWITZ, Missouri

Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz watches his team play in snow against Arkansas.
Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz watches play against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The job most likely to come open next season might come as a surprise to some, but that's because everyone gets trapped in the mentality that things have to go poorly for an opening to come up. If Drinkwitz posts double-digit wins in Columbia for a third consecutive season and either continues to not make the playoffs or gets bounced easily in the first round, there's a good chance he will be open to taking his show somewhere else.

Because of the lack of movement this past season, next year figures to be one of the biggest seasons for firings in a long time. There are going to be high profile jobs that come open, possibly even in the SEC, and, despite being an acquired taste, someone is going to want to kick the tires on Drinkwitz.

If he has another highly successful season, and Mizzou's light for an SEC school schedule makes that very possible, there's a good chance Drinkwitz sees he's done all he can with the Tigers. There's just no way to take them higher.

He's the kind of guy who gets thirsty for the next challenge, and that next challenge is finding a way to make what he does work at a major football program and getting a national championship. If USC or Florida State were to come calling, it'd be hard for him not to listen.

Not only do both have prominent names and locations that make recruiting much easier, both have easier paths to the playoffs. Other schools with similar more favorable profiles than Missouri will also give thought to plucking one of the nation's most successful coaches away.

The one thing Missouri has in its favor is a $9 million+ annual salary and a $5 million buyout. That might be enough to hold a few suitors at bay, but not many. However, the flip side of that is for a guy like Drinkwitz, challenging himself and personal ambition will likely trump money at some point.

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Kent Smith
KENT SMITH

Kent Smith has been in the world of media and film for nearly 30 years. From Nolan Richardson's final seasons, former Razorback quarterback Clint Stoerner trying to throw to anyone and anything in the blazing heat of Cowboys training camp in Wichita Falls, the first high school and college games after 9/11, to Troy Aikman's retirement and Alex Rodriguez's signing of his quarter billion dollar contract, Smith has been there to report on some of the region's biggest moments.