A Look At Realistic Expectations For Football In 2024

Arkansas has a chance to be in thick of bowl eligibility midseason but may not be possible

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - The phrase 'any given Saturday' holds true, especially with how the past three college football seasons have played out. Incredible upsets, close games due to the parity created by transfer portal additions and NIL has pulled the field together like never before.

For Arkansas, just when things seemed to be on the uptick, they slid back a ways with a 4-8 season. Excitement from how close the 2021 team was to breaking through has fizzled with Pittman's program limping into Year 5. Lowering expectations shouldn't be too hard for a fan base which is thirsty for a winner. It just won't be this season.

A Little Rock home opener against UAPB won't show anyone where this team is. Unless the Razorbacks lay down and take one on the chin, it should at least take a victory in Week 1.

However, Week 2 will tell Pittman, players, coaches and fans exactly where they are in a road game against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were routed last season by South Alabama 33-7 inside Boone Pickens Stadium. Now, they'll be tasked at stopping an Arkansas team with a power run game and the unknown of a Bobby Petrino offense.

Defensively, the Razorbacks will need to identify ways to slow down All-American running back Ollie Gordon. The 6-foot-1, 211 pound Fort Worth, Texas native rushed for 1,732 yards and scored 21 touchdown as a sophomore in 2023. Seventh year senior Alan Bowman passed for 3,460 yards, but finished the season with 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

With the Razorbacks' stark improvement in pass defense last season, perhaps they can figure out ways to turn Bowman over. Forcing him into mistakes is how visiting teams score upsets in road match-ups. A 2-0 start will be daunting, but not out of the question.

There is a strong possibility when Arkansas returns from its trip to Stillwater that UAB will be ready to crash the party. The Blazers could be coming off a 2-0 start to the season when they travel to Fayetteville. There is a talent gap between the two programs as there should be considering a down SEC team should beat a cellar AAC team any day.

At the very least, Arkansas should sit at 2-1 on the season depending on the outcome of the Oklahoma State game. Two early non-conference games gives the Razorbacks time to figure themselves out before SEC play begins in week four.

A large bump in the road will be a visit to Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Razorbacks have only won there once since 2013. Hugh Freeze led his Tigers to a magnificent pair of signing days on The Plains with a No. 7 finish in the recruiting rankings. However, offseason acquisitions aren't quite as appealing without doing work in the transfer portal.

Auburn is set to bring in nine transfers so far which ranks No. 40 in the nation. Gone are the days like Freeze's 2013 Ole Miss class where padding classes with five-star freshmen alone meant dominance. Now, it's a combination of how the newcomers coexist with returning studs. Getting a win at Auburn will be quite a tall task meaning a 3-1 or 2-2 start is quite possible.

One last game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington matches two coaches on opposite ends of the hot seat. The Aggies new head man Mike Elko brought in the No. 17 recruiting class and No. 2 transfer class in college football this season. Winning right away might be the expectation for most Aggie fans and Arkansas should be an easy one for them to pick up.

The Aggies were great defensively under Jimbo Fisher. With their former defensive coordinator back in town as a head coach, the defense may be able to bail Elko's offense out if it remains stagnant. Predicting a victory here is hard considering all the close calls through the years. While that could yet be the case again in 2024, it's not likely Arkansas pulls a win off in this case. A 2-3 start sounds like a program begging for help way too early in a season as one would say.

If Arkansas plans on staying around .500 overall, it will need to come home and take care of business against Tennessee. The Volunteers bring in a solid transfer class along with a recruiting class which ranked No. 12 by 247sports. Nico Iamaleava is expected to be the quarterback trotting his team onto the field in 2024.

The Volunteers are expected to take a step back this year, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. Josh Heupel's team lacks from a returning production standpoint ranking No. 94 in the nation in the category. Losing the likes of Joe Milton, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small are all significant departures. But, Squirrel White, Donte Thomas and Chaz Nimrod are all great options to keep the offense steady.

Razorback Stadium should be rocking that night, especially if they sit 3-2 going into the match-up. This is a game that could make or break how this pivotal season plays out. The second-half of the schedule holds a home games against LSU, Texas and Ole Miss spell trouble. Road visits to Mississippi State and Missouri demonstrates how having a quality September pays off in November. 

It's hard to find a path for Pittman to guide this team to a bowl game this year at the least.

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