What Positions Get High Value from 3-Stars, Which Waste Scholarship?

With recruiting slots at a premium, where does data say Arkansas football can take risk with 3-stars?

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Earlier this week, 4-star commit Noreel White revealed he no longer wanted to be committed to the Razorback football team, leading to projections that he is lost to Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. Since then, Sam Pittman's staff has added a pair 3-stars in Marietta, Ga. linebacker Justin Logan and Hoover, Ala. safety Jeremy Cook.

Only time will tell whether either will outperform White. The list of 4-star busts at Arkansas is long, as it often is at other schools also. Fortunately for Pittman, one things the Razorbacks have a history of doing, especially in years when he has been on the practice fields on Fayetteville, is chip away the rough exterior to mold a true diamond out of 3-star prospects.

Just from the last few years Raheim "Rocket" Sanders, Bumper Pool, Grant Morgan, Joe Foucha, Dominique Johnson, Myron Cunningham, Beaux Limmer, Mike Woods, Isaiah Nichols, Quincey McAdoo, Ty Clary, Hayden Henry, Dalton Wagner and Rashod Dubinion have come in and performed at a high level. That's 14 guys who, if they are getting playing time on the same team, instantly put a coach at an advantage. It should also be noted that Chris "Pooh" Paul, Jr., who will start at linebacker this season, is also a 3-star who shows a lot of promise. So that brings forth the question as to which positions fans shouldn't panic so much about if there are 3-stars in the recruiting class and which are a borderline waste if a scholarship is given to a player at that level. 

It should be noted the data is being pulled is only from the past 10 years because advancements in technology has greatly increased the accuracy of recruiting services over this time. Between the pervasive use of Hudl, increased number of camps yielding tons of video, teams from various states facing off in 7-on-7 and easy access to additional footage on YouTube and social media along with instant statistical updates, it's become easier to rate athletes and find those would have normally gone overlooked. Those who do the ratings can easily put players from different states who probably wouldn't be seen in person at all, or at best once, side by side for easy comparison. This makes rankings much more accurate than in years prior.

So, with that disclaimer out of the way, the position by a mile that produced the most high level production from a 3-star prospect is running back. All those guys in the NFL losing their minds because the position has been devalued lose their argument right here. The gap between a 3-star running back and a 5-star running back is more narrow than any other position. A 5-star will be a little better with vision, might catch the ball slightly better and will likely block a little better. Other than that last one, it's usually the thinnest of margins between the levels, and better blocking skills can be taught. 

The list at running back is long even though it's such a short sample. In addition to Sanders, Johnson and Dubinion, there's also Rakeem Boyd and Raleigh Williams III. That's a high quality running back emerging from the list of 3-stars every other season, which means its possible to keep the starting and back-up running back spots filled with elite runners at all times without ever landing a 4-star or 5-star. As will be seen, that's not the case everywhere else.

The next closest position group is linebacker. There are slightly more linebackers than there are running backs on this list, but there are also two to three times more linebackers on the field at a time. In addition to Morgan, Hayden and Pool, De'Jon Harris, Martrell Spaight, and Dre Greenlaw have also passed through as 3-stars and had elite careers in the SEC. 

With those two positions out of the way, there is a huge drop-off to the next level. 

The next largest group, and it has to do with sheer numbers more than anything, is offensive line. Cunningham, Limmer, Wagner and Clary join Sebastian Tretola, Colton Jackson and Dan Skipper on the list of road graders who developed into solid, in most cases elite, players. If that were the offensive line heading into this season, Pittman would be ecstatic and the league would be buzzing the way they were early in Bielema's tenure about the front line of the offense.

Defensive line hasn't has as much success with 3-stars as its offensive counterpart, but there are still a couple of success stories. In addition to Nichols, Armon Watts came on to build an NFL worthy career. However, odds are slim Arkansas finds success packing the defensive front front with players evaluated at this level. There's simply a specific set of skills and natural abilities needed to be successful and they're far more rare than people imagine. A player either excels in fast-twitch muscles or he doesn't.

Defensive back and wide receiver are also difficult to come by. Speed, size, attitude and soft hands play huge roles in these positions, allowing for several variables to impact performance that can't be changed through coaching. A player can be taught when to break on a ball or to run better routes, but he can't change his body frame, get taller, or in most cases develop a significantly better ability to catch a football. It's also hard to increase a player's speed.

This is why McAdoo was able to succeed so quickly as a 3-star last season. He doesn't shy away from contact, knows how to play the ball, has good speed, and adjusts his hands so they absorb impact on interception attempts rather than create impact. In addition to McAdoo and Foucha, Kamren Curl and Henre' Toliver were able to overcome their 3-star ratings to find success as high quality defensive backs. Meanwhile, Woods is the only receiver to do so. Drew Morgan was a 2-star, so while he warrants attention, he technically doesn't fit what is being analyzed here.

 And that's it as far as 3-star success. It should be noted special teams weren't evaluated for this, which means two specific groups that were evaluated have yet to yield a prominent 3-star Cinderella over the past decade. 

The most surprising of the two is tight end. Players at that position who can excel in the SEC require size both in height and weight, relatively good speed, quick feet, incredibly soft hands and a fearlessness that allows the mentality to bang with defensive linemen while at the same time go over the middle at full speed knowing a linebacker or safety has them lined up for a hit that could seriously injure them or end their playing careers. There aren't a lot of openings for the jobs and the requirements are high level, so it's at least 4-star or bust on this one.

 The most glaring omission of 3-star success stories is at quarterback. Arkansas has had a few over the past decade, and the general hope is they never make the field. The time or two it has happened went poorly to say the least. Not only does a quarterback need to be at least a 4-star, he needs to be a high 4-star if at all possible. Even then, the list of busts piles up pretty quick.

For those rushing to check on the list of current recruits, you have been saved time. Not one 3-star falls into a category that hasn't shown potential to produce. Despite what a lot of fans believe, college coaches tend to know what they're doing. Many of the 3-stars are simply listed as athletes, which isn't a bad way to go. 

Even Alabama has to take 3-star players, so taking a flyer on a player who is an elite athlete and figuring out where he can fit or plug a hole once he arrives on campus is a solid approach.
Just so long as he doesn't play quarterback. 

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