Kentucky Has Weaknesses to be Exploited

Wildcats' bad habits could make for big afternoon for Hogs

Good news Arkansas fans. When Kentucky comes to town on Saturday, John Calipari will not only bring a team that is beatable, it will be a team that can potentially be blown out of the gym.

The Wildcats have two major weaknesses that can be exploited. 

The first weakness involves highly celebrated forward Oscar Tshiebwe. ESPN has gone out of its way to push Tshiebwe as the reincarnation of the Chicago Bulls version of Dennis Rodman. The problem is Tshiebwe is no Rodman.

Go back and watch Kentucky’s game against LSU from Wednesday night. Tshiebwe often spends 6-12 seconds in the paint on the offensive end. Being allowed to camp out in the paint for up to four times the allowed amount of time lets Tshiebwe be in prime rebounding position regularly, but more importantly, lets him think solely about rebounding without dividing his attention on keeping up with how long he’s been in the paint. 

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All Musselman has to do is get in the ear of the referees early and often about Tshiebwe’s camping habits and the game changes immediately. A couple of 3-second calls will get into Tshiebwe’s head. 

Not only will his mental game be more divided, but he will be moving away from the basket more often. It’s much easier to block him out when he’s having to float in and out of the paint as opposed to when his feet are anchored solidly on prime rebounding real estate. 

When Tshiebwe does move in and out of the paint as dictated by the rules, his effectiveness goes down dramatically. 

A simple conversation with the refs could not only take the forward mentally out of his game, but would mean 3-4 fewer possessions for Kentucky and 4-6 fewer points for Tshiebwe. In a game between top teams, a 7-11 point difference is a massive swing. 

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The second weakness is how susceptible Kentucky is to the press. The guard line-up the Wildcats ran out against LSU has a long list of bad habits that can be taken advantage of by teams that aren’t afraid to put in the defensive work. 

First, they dribble the ball high, we’re talking chest high at times. They also tend to let the ball stray away from their bodies when they have to focus on an approaching defender or watch for a cut by a teammate. 

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The Wildcats also have a habit of making an unusually high number of long passes through the air. Even in high traffic, there is something buried deep in this team’s DNA that won’t allow its players to opt for the bounce pass despite being the only way to get the ball to a teammate at times.

This makes Kentucky a team tailor-made to give up steals, which might be why the Wildcats’ guards panic so easily. 

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The waves of full court press that made Arkansas and Kentucky so formidable throughout the ‘90s has gone the way of VCRs in the modern era. However, just like the VCR, today’s players haven’t seen it and are easily confused by it.

The few times LSU applied a proper high pressure full court press, Kentucky folded. It got into their heads and mistakes quickly followed. 

There is a play around the 10:05 point of the second half the perfectly encapsulates all of these issues for Kentucky. The following offensive possession for the Wildcats shows much of the same.

J.D. Notae, Davonte Davis and Chris Lykes are capable of becoming the stuff of nightmares should they be allowed to press Kentucky. The Wildcats have it in them to give up 20 turnovers against the right team.

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Razorbacks guard Davonte Davis playing defense against West Virginia in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge in January. (Michael Morrison / allHOGS Images)

However, as with any plan, there are some things that can throw a wrench into the works. The return of Tyty Washington and Sahvir Wheeler would give Kentucky more confidence when it comes to handling pressure defense. 

The other potential issue is Arkansas playing with a short bench. 

Non-stop pressure defense benefits from having a lot of players to spread the fouls between without having a drop-off in quality of play. It’s why Nolan Richardson and Rick Pitino famously subbed five guys in at a time on numerous occasions. 

The Razorbacks go six deep. Every now and then, if pushed, Musselman will extend to a seventh player in the rotation, but the reality is there’s a long list of Razorbacks who have logged little to no minutes since the second week of January. 

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Because of this, fouls tend to stack up on individual players. Add in the number of ticky-tack fouls Kentucky usually draws, especially in big games, and you’re left with a recipe that will make it hard to sustain long stretches of high pressure basketball.

The ingredients are all there for a potential big afternoon for the Hogs. That is, if the refs are willing to make 3-second calls and let these teams play a more aggressive game. 

If not, then let’s hope Arkansas fans can grow fingernails quickly because they’re going to need whatever’s left from that Florida game to gnaw on all afternoon.