All Hogs

Black's Tweet Has Razorback Fans Hopeful, But Is There Really A Chance?

NIL makes what was once a given decision to enter NBA draft reason to pause for thought

Kent Smith

(Steve Roberts / USA TODAY Sports)
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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Arkansas guard Anthony Black spent the season working himself into the honor of being rated the top NBA pick on the Razorbacks.

He did so through a commitment to hard work, heart, listening and humbling himself. As the season went on, Arkansas fans came to realize how much they wanted to see Black in a Razorback jersey for a second season while also understanding that with each game it was becoming less likely. 

Then came the tweet that put a level of hope in the hearts of Hog fans. 

Immediately Arkansas fans began reading into as a declaration that there would be a Year 2. However, it should be noted that pinned to the top of his page from back in early October is a tweet showing Black in his Arkansas uniform that is simply labeled "Year 1."

While the odds are highest that Year 1 is the end of the college journey for Black, there is technically a path that wasn't there in years past. 

A few years ago Black wouldn't really have options. If he wanted a paycheck for his craft, he would need to go ahead and declare for the NBA while he's a wanted commodity. 

However, this isn't a few years ago. This is the era of the NIL.

Right now, Black is projected to go No. 11 to the Utah Jazz. There's really not a better city for a young rookie to stay out of trouble while focusing on his game than Salt Lake City. 

However, if it's about generational wealth that not only changes Black's life, but the life of his children and grandchildren, then the best decision might be to stay. The No. 11 pick would receive a 3-year contract worth just shy of $12 million.

But, what happens if Black bets on himself? What's his projection if he comes back for one more season? 

Black has built a solid base for his personal brand. Going into next season, he will be one of the biggest names in all of college basketball. 

If he has the right people behind him, Black could easily be a national name with his unique, highly identifiable look and trademark smile. Considering the amount of NIL money that comes the way of top level high school kids once they sign with a school, it's probably fair to say that money goes way up as an established truly marketable player.

Selling a player who has already proven himself to be a lottery pick is not the hardest thing in the world.

That means it's possible to make a solid dent into the $3.8 million Black would forego to come back. Even still, for most of the people in Arkansas, that's a lot of money to consider walking away from and it's not even their money. 

With that in consideration, it's hard to imagine how there could be a better long-term solution, but math can be tricky that way.

If Black bets on himself and plays his way into the No. 5 pick, which is a definite possibility given how much improvement he showed over the course of this season, he will pocket $12.4 million over the next three years, plus whatever NIL money he can get for another season as a Razorback. 

He would also still have another $6.65 million waiting for collection in Year 3 of his contract in addition to all that money. 

That doesn't mean he would come back. That's a huge gamble to take.

However, if Jordan Walsh and Trevon Brazile decide to come back for one more run that would possibly give Arkansas what could be its first ever trio of Top 10 NBA draft picks next year, it would greatly increase the odds of that happening.

But, if it turns out there is no Year 2, there is no need to be bitter in any way. Black did everything he could to earn the respect of Arkansas fans.

Nothing was left on the court by the freshman guard. He played hurt more often than not and took violent blow after violent blow as teams tried to find ways to get into his head.

He truly represented what it means to be a Razorback, and that should be enough.

Arkansas divider

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Arkansas divider

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Kent Smith
KENT SMITH

Kent Smith has been in the world of media and film for nearly 30 years. From Nolan Richardson's final seasons, former Razorback quarterback Clint Stoerner trying to throw to anyone and anything in the blazing heat of Cowboys training camp in Wichita Falls, the first high school and college games after 9/11, to Troy Aikman's retirement and Alex Rodriguez's signing of his quarter billion dollar contract, Smith has been there to report on some of the region's biggest moments.