Random Notes: NCAA Tournament Selection

Poor memory, easy picks, possible upsets, unthinkable inclusions, and confounding snubs

The Selection Committee has officially issued its damage report and there's definitely a lot of meat on the bone, so let's start chewing.

PEOPLE HAVE POOR MEMORIES

Everyone acts like Arkansas had to hit a last second shot to beat Colgate last year. The Selection Show commentators even mentioned that Colgate put a huge scare into Arkansas last year when announcing Colgate's return to the tournament and said people should fear Vermont beating Arkansas because they have a style similar to Colgate.

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Let's address the actual facts. Arkansas went on a 17-0 run to go into halftime with a lead. Then, after a bit of back and forth to start the second half, the Razorbacks spent the last 10 minutes of the game curb stomping the Raiders on their way to a breezy 85-68 win. 

There also seems to be revisionist history in regard to Vermont and the NCAA tournament. The Catamounts are being shown the respect earned by teams like Butler, which certainly has NCAA skins on the wall. 

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The reality is that Vermont has won one actual game in either the NIT or NCAA tournament game in its entire history. That win was an overtime upset of Syracuse nearly 20 years ago. 

The Catamounts are 1-11 in the NIT and NCAA tournaments. Their only other success was win over Lamar in 2012 in a play-in game to get into the NCAA tournament field. 

THE SELECTION COMMITTEE MADE PICKING GAME EASIER AGAIN THIS YEAR

When it comes to the NCAA tournament, the Big 10 has been one of the worst performing conferences in recent years as a result of being highly overvalued by the selection committee. 

The Big 10 got eight teams into the tournament last year. Three were gone by the end of the first round and all but Big 10 conference champion Michigan was gone by the time the first weekend of competition concluded.

LOOKING FOR UPSETS?

Your first option is Loyola-Chicago over Ohio State. The most obvious reason is because Big 10 teams are prone to upsets, but there is substantial evidence the Ramblers are capable of pulling off the win beyond that. 

This may seam weird, but as I tried to find teams with a high potential for an upset, each team I glanced at in my first round of investigation lost to San Francisco except the Ramblers, so that game them an initial edge. Then I started looking for games against quality opponents, and unlike the other teams, there was plenty to analyze in this category. 

Michigan State, which had a better overall record than Ohio St. while finishing one game behind the Buckeyes in the Big 10, had to hit a shot with three seconds left to beat Loylola-Chicago on a neutral floor. Auburn, during its 22-1 hot streak to start the season, also struggled with the Ramblers.

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They then beat Arizona State and Vanderbilt on the road handily. They also have a road win over a 23-win Missouri State team and a neutral court win over 24-win Drake.

The other upset would have to be Iowa St. over LSU. The Cyclones racked up a ton of quality wins over teams that finished ranked, but fell apart down the final stretch, including three consecutive losses heading into the tournament. 

Had Will Wade not been fired just prior to the tournament this game wouldn't be on here, but as much as there was to not like about Wade, his ability to coach wasn't one of them. Perhaps the albatross that was the FBI/NCAA investigation frees the Tigers, but losing a coach days before the tournament starts usually isn't a good thing.

DID SOMEBODY OWE SOMEONE A FAVOR?

Speaking of Michigan, if you're like us, you were sent scrambling to the internet to see who all Michigan must have upset to get into the tournament with a 17-14 record. If you did, you were probably shocked also to see that the Wolverines beat literally no one of note. 

The Wolverines were supposedly rewarded for a difficult schedule, but it would seem a team would have to win some of those big games on that schedule to get credit for it. Yes, they played No. 2 Arizona and No. 25 North Carolina, but they got their doors blown off in  both games.

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They played No. 16 Illinois and got battered in the first game and managed to finally have a reasonably close game by only losing by eight the next time they met. No. 12 Wisconsin drummed the Wolverines in the infamous game where Michigan coach Juwan Howard punched a Wisconsin assistant because a timeout was called while the Badger back-ups were in taking their shots at Michigan. 

Even No. 24 Iowa put a beating on Michigan. Granted Michigan did pull off a close win in the previous meeting.

The only respectable win the Wolverines have is a win over No. 10 Purdue where the Wolverines played perfect at home on the Boilermakers worst night of the year. Purdue had taken down the Wolverines the week before.

It's not like Michigan went on some sort of tear down the stretch that really impressed anyone. The Wolverines were 7-7 and lost to the only game they played in the Big 10 to an Indiana team that had lost seven of its last nine games and had a losing conference record.

Not only did Michigan make the tournament despite not only a lack of quality wins, but just wins period, but the Wolverines were an 11 seed and not even considered among the last four at-large teams. 

Meanwhile, Texas A&M, a team with six more wins and three fewer losses, was snubbed. The 23-11 Aggies were 8-1 heading into the SEC championship game before they ran out of steam at the end of a four-day stretch that included three Top 15 teams.

The Aggies played nine games against Top 15 teams, only two of which were home games, and pulled off three upsets and nearly came away with two more against Kentucky and Arkansas. They also went on the road to Notre Dame and Wisconsin and came away with a split. 

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So lets weight it out:

More overall wins while competing in a top tier conference: A&M

Fewer losses while competing in a top tier conference: A&M

Wins over Top 15 opponents: A&M 3, Michigan 1

Wins over Top 25 opponents: A&M 3, Michigan 2

Games against Top 15 opponents: A&M 9, Michigan 4

Games against Top 25 opponents: A&M 9, Michigan 9

So if Texas A&M played a more loaded schedule, got more quality wins, more overall wins, and fewer losses, has a conference championship game appearance versus being bounced in the first game, then why is A&M not only out, but the fourth out of the "First Four Out" while Michigan is in comfortably at an 11 above the "Last Four In." 

Just asking for a conference that doesn't seem to be getting the respect it deserves.