Hogs' Close in on Magic Number of Wins for NCAA Tournament Bid

Razorbacks slow SEC start costly, avoids slip up against down Tigers' squad Wednesday night

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari on the sidelines during game with the LSU Tigers at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When the buzzer sounded in Arkansas' 70-58 victory over LSU in Bud Walton Arena Wednesday night, the Razorbacks sighed relief while remaining firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Arkansas' chances of dancing next month are a far cry from where this team was just three weeks ago when the Hogs sat at 1-6 in SEC play. The Razorbacks were setting records under first-year coach John Calipari and not in a good way either before going 4-2 in the last six games.

Before the season, Calipari knew this league would present his team a challenge even with a roster pieced together through the transfer portal. He proclaimed the SEC to be a 'gauntlet' at SEC Media Days in October.

"We have some guys that know the league, but until you go through this gauntlet that we're all going to go through, and we all went through it last year, teams got beat that, 'wow, I can't believe,' because it's a gauntlet," Calipari said.

Arkansas doesn't have a single bad loss sitting No. 41 in the NCAA NET rankings as of this moment and are a perfect 11-0 against quadrant three and four games. On the flip side of things, Calipari's team is 3-7 against quadrant one teams with wins over Michigan, Kentucky and Texas and a 1-2 mark against quadrant two opponents.

"In this league, two road wins?" Calipari said after Arkansas' victory 79-70 win over Texas. "It tells you we're not too bad."

With the NET rankings being the tournament selection committee's main source of determining which team's receive at-large bids, the Razorbacks are in position to insert themselves firmly into consideration as their final seven games present an opportunity to win four and get in.

Calipari's team will face four opponents that currently rank in the NET's Top 35 beginning Saturday at Texas A&M inside Reed Arena. The Aggies have suffered only one loss at home this season against Alabama, which presents an opportunity to catapult Arkansas inside the Top 40.

Home dub. Run it back. pic.twitter.com/SbgLDFk86V

— Arkansas Razorbacks Men’s Basketball 🐗 (@RazorbackMBB) February 13, 2025

Then, Arkansas takes the road to face Auburn in one of the SEC's craziest atmospheres in "The Jungle" against Coach Bruce Pearl's AP No. 1 ranked team. Also No. 1 in the NET, the Tigers are the only team in college basketball with double-digit quadrant one victories and a single home loss.

Head-to-head, Calipari still has a stranglehold on the all-time series against Pearl with a 15-9 mark dating back to their time at Memphis and Tennessee in the early 2000's. Arkansas is also 1-3 since 2018 in road games against Auburn which shows exactly how tough it is to win in the venue considering the Razorbacks 13-15 mark on "The Plains" historically.

Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl and Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari shake hands before the game as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. / Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Razorbacks will also plays host to heated rivals Missouri and Texas after the road trip in what should be a wild environment. If Arkansas finds a way to split that four game stretch, it would bring them to a 17-11 overall record and 6-9 in SEC play with South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State left.

Should Arkansas win those it would hypothetically get them to 20 victories, a .500 mark in SEC play and 7-9 against quadrant one opponents. That's all Calipari could ask for going into the season in a loaded conference that currently has nine teams ranked in the Top 25 and 13 teams predicted to make the NCAA Tournament, according to ESPN's lead bracketologist Joe Lunardi.

"I can remember being in this league, we got two or three teams in the NCAA Tournament," Calipari said in October. "Now all of a sudden it looks like it's going to be 10 or 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Every game we play on the road, going to be ridiculous. Our home sites in this league, ridiculous. Facilities, the investment in coaches, you've got coaches and players that all are at the top of their game."

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