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What Should Hogs' Expectations Be for Calipari's First Season?

Projections vary, likely able to predict anywhere between outcomes in exhibitions against Kansas, TCU

Jacob Davis

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland makes a pass defended by Kansas Jayhawks Zeke Mayo at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark.
Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland makes a pass defended by Kansas Jayhawks Zeke Mayo at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Andy Hodges-Hogs on SI Images
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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas' basketball program is under new direction for the third time in seven seasons. Mike Anderson left the program in good hands for Eric Musselman to take over with two Elite Eight's and a Sweet 16 appearance in five years.

Naismith Hall of Famer John Calipari sent shockwaves around college basketball the eve before the national championship game as his departure from Kentucky was leaked. Athletic director Hunter Yurachek and chicken mogul John Tyson lured Calipari away for a handsome contract and a rich NIL budget.

Exhibition season was good and and not so good to Arkansas with a home victory over a hobbled No. 1 Jayhawks team and loss to TCU at Dickies Arena. Playing credible opponents in preseason play is more of a novelty as other programs still schedule Division II opponents for tune-ups.

Expectations for Arkansas will range from darkhorse Final Four candidates to tournament squad with 20+ victories. The Razorbacks spent a good chunk of change during the recruitment of high schoolers and transfer prospects including a package north of $1 million for guard Johnell Davis.

Calipari's team must figure out a few things before it's able to contend for even a conference title this season. He has a proven and trusted track record of getting it right more often than not.

Arkansas coach John Calipari instructs team against Kansas Jayhawks
Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari during the second quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bud Walton Arena. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Enough Post Depth?

Arkansas experimented with its depth down low during exhibition play as Zvonimir Ivisic started both games. He scored 18 points and six rebounds against Kansas but was slowed to five points and eight rebounds in a one point loss to TCU.

Ivisic missed a lot of time last season as the NCAA drug its feet to deem him eligible until January. After being behind the eight ball as a freshman, he received a chance to grow as a player and develop into a SEC caliber post presence.

Trevon Brazile improved his body during the offseason adding a noticeable 10 pounds to his frame. The senior forward has shown a willingness to rebound averaging seven during Arkansas' two exhibition games.

Versatile forward Adou Thiero will play a role in the post and wing and had a breakout game against TCU with a team-high 20 points, seven rebounds, four assists, four blocks and three steals. With the pending return of All-SEC defender Jonas Aidoo near, perhaps the Razorbacks will have enough depth in the post.

Talented Guard Play

The offense will run through Kentucky transfer D.J. Wagner and true freshman 5-star combo guard Boogie Fland. There was initially a worry that Wagner and Fland couldn't coexist on the court together to initiate an offense but that was all proven wrong against Kansas.

While the duo struggled to be disruptive against the Horned Frogs, the pair generated more than enough scoring against Kansas to compensate for a victory. Since Davis' transferred from FAU, he has been sidelined with a wrist injury for much of the offseason.

Davis still shows to still be a bit rusty but has contributed enough defensively to earn the trust of his coaches and teammates. It will only be a matter of time before the nation's top transfer pulls through and figures things out at Arkansas.

Razorbacks guard DJ Wagner preparing to shoot a free throw against Kansas
Arkansas Razorbacks guard DJ Wagner preparing to shoot a free throw against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Andy Hodges-Hogs on SI Images

Who's The Sixth Man?

Keep in mind this roster only has nine players who will contribute and earn a significant amount of minutes. The starting five during the preseason has been Fland, Wagner, Thiero, Ivisic and Karter Knox.

Once Aidoo is out, Knox would likely move to the sixth man role with Ivisic and Brazile in rotation. If foul trouble or an injury occurs Calipari's plan might change but this is possibly the rotation seen once tip-off happens against Lipscomb Wednesday night.

Tough Schedule Ahead

Calipari likes to test his teams with tough non-conference matchups early in the season. The Razorbacks will play neutral site games against Baylot, Michigan, Illinois and travel to Miami before opening SEC play against Tennessee on the road.

Arkansas could start the season anywhere between12-1 and 9-3 at worst. That's being quite generous with Calipari's new roster strategy on display as it presents an unknown type of challenge to predict.

The Razorbacks play three consecutive NCAA Tournament caliber teams to start league play with road trip against the Volunteers and back-to-back home games against Ole Miss and Florida.

Razorbacks guard Karter Knox in an exhibition game against Kansas
Arkansas Razorbacks guard Karter Knox in an exhibition game against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Andy Hodges-Hogs on SI Images

Then, Arkansas next four games at LSU and Missouri with two home games against Georgia and Oklahoma present an opportunity for the Razorbacks to start 6-1. Calipari's return to Rupp Arena will be a wild environment to pull out a victory and will be followed by games at Texas and home against Alabama.

The schedule kind of cools a bit down the stretch with worrisome road games against Texas A&M and Auburn which are never easy outs. Arkansas closes out the season with home games against the Longhorns and Mississippi State but hit the road games at South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Best Case Scenario: 25-6 overall (13-5 SEC)
Worst Case Scenario: 16-16 (5-13 SEC)
Most Likely Scenario: 23-8 (12-6 SEC)

HOGS FEED:

• Ole Miss simply had talent to react to Razorbacks' defense

• Hogs stuck in mediocrity with momentum neutralized

• Yurachek's comments about Ole Miss come to fruition about Hogs

• Just a Whippin': Razorbacks Had Plan Until Hit in Mouth

• Arkansas' last line of defense had its most difficult day

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Jacob Davis
JACOB DAVIS

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