Three reasons why Auburn baseball will & will not win the College World Series

Which of these reasons do you like the most for Auburn baseball?

Auburn's baseball team welcomed fans in the sweltering heat for a Reverse Tiger Walk as they boarded buses to head to Omaha for the 2nd time under Coach Butch Thompson. After being picked to finish last in the SEC West, Auburn baseball is one of eight teams left standing, four of which are from the SEC West. 

With the upset of national #1 Tennessee at the hands of Notre Dame, the Omaha field is considered to be wide open, with seemingly every team having a shot to claim the trophy. Here are three reasons why Auburn could win (or lose) in Omaha:

WIN: Sonny DiChiara powers Auburn's offense to a dominant performance

Grayson Belanger/Auburn Athletics

The SEC Co-Player of the Year led all of college baseball in walks (68), walks per game (1.17) and on-base percentage (.560). The senior is a power threat in the heart of the lineup and, batting third, you've got to have a plan to deal with him in the very first inning. Having clubbed 22 homeruns on the year, he hit two in the Regionals and two in the Super Regionals, with Auburn winning all four of those games. When Sonny DiChiara is seeing pitches to hit, the offense has a significantly better chance of scoring enough runs to win a game.

LOSE: Auburn's offense struggles against high level pitching

Auburn Athletics

After exploding in the 3 games of the Auburn Regional for 51 runs on 49 hits and 28 walks (+33 run differential), Auburn's offense did just enough to squeeze by the Oregon State Beavers in the Corvallis Super Regional.  18 hits plated 14 runs in three games, giving Auburn a +2 run differential for the Supers. Struggles against projected first round pick LHP Cooper Hjerpe were to be expected, but Auburn only managed three hits in game three off of RHPs Jared Hunter, Reid Sebby, and Ryan Brown. 

WIN: Auburn's bullpen continues to keep runs off the board

Photo credit: Matthew Shannon/Auburn Athletics

 Against Oregon State, Auburn's formidable bullpen stepped up and carried the Tigers to victory. Starting with a first-inning hook of Trace Bright in Game One, Auburn's relievers covered 13.2 innings over the weekend with nine hits and only four runs allowed. Auburn got HUGE performances from usual suspects Blake Burkhalter (two outings, 3.2 IP, 2H, 1R, 7Ks, 2 SV) and Carson Skipper (two outings, 5IP, 3H, 2R, 9 Ks, 1 W), but also saw clutch contributions from Tommy Sheehan, John Armstrong, Chase Isbell, and Chase Allsup.  

LOSE: Auburn's starters allow early runs, exit early, and dig the offense a hole

RHP Trace Bright has twice failed to come back out for the 2nd inning late in the season, coming out after the 1st in Game 2 against Alabama after 4H and 4R w/ 2 BBs and only one strikeout, followed by 0.2 IP against Oregon State with 3H, 4R, and 3BBs with two strikeouts. Joseph Gonzalez only made it five innings against Oregon State, and Mason Barnett was pulled after 4.1. Continuing to ask the bullpen to cover more than half the game has the potential to be disastrous if there's a bad outing from one of the relievers. 

WIN: Auburn's players rise to the moment

Sarah Caputi/Kentucky Athletics

There are not many players on this team from the 2019 CWS run, with Kason Howell and Brody Moore the only position players who garnered any playing time in 2019, and only Howell being a starter. But there's plenty of veteran leadership on this team, with the two position players, LHP Carson Skipper, and INF Garrett Farquhar composing the "legacy group", as Thompson calls them. Voted by their teammates, Thompson consults them on major decisions that affect the team and allows them to lead pre-game motivational talks and post-game celebrations. Moore and Howell consult and decide on the game's "Top Guns", presenting the hats to the chosen pair after the game and the team breaks down with "Bad News", a homage to the 1976 film "The Bad News Bears".  

LOSE: The baseball gods don't shine on Auburn

© Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn's walked a fine line this season, with more than 20 come-from-behind wins on the season. Timely hitting has been the name of the game, with multiple games won in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings on offense. But luck plays a factor in baseball, as well. Billy Beane, former GM of the Oakland Athletics profiled in the book "Moneyball" (subsequently made into a film with Brad Pitt) summed up the role that lucks plays in baseball thusly: "My stuff doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. Everything after that is ******* luck." In a small three or one-game series, it only takes one bad hop, one errant throw, or one bad call to change the outcome of the game and, subsequently, the season. Auburn's going to need the calls to even out so that their talent can be the deciding factor in Omaha.

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