Every possible outcome for Auburn basketball before the NCAA Tournament

This is every possible outcome for Auburn after the SEC tournament and their odds of reaching the NCAA tournament.

Author:
Lance Dawe
Publish date:
Feb 27, 2023 2:08 PM EST

In this story:

Auburn basketball is currently somewhat on the NCAA tournament bubble.

What would happen if the Tigers were to lose out? Or only win one game? Or win a couple?

Bart Torvik has a Teamcast setting on his website where you can alter the records of individual teams to project where they would land in the postseason.

This is what Torvik's system says about Auburn in every scenario (I stole this idea from The Auburn Observer, and would encourage you to subscribe to Justin's incredible work).

Brace yourself.

If they Auburn wins out (including SEC tournament)

- 98.9% chance of getting in, No. 5 seed

The Tigers would climb as high as a No. 5 seed if they were to win out, finishing 24-10 if they won the SEC tournament as well.

If Auburn goes 2-0 (beating UA and UT)

- 97.5% chance of getting in as No. 6 seed

If the Tigers win their final two games before the SEC tournament they would be a No. 6 seed.

If Auburn goes 1-1 (beating Alabama)

- 91.9% chance of getting in as No. 8 seed

If Auburn splits vs UT and UA and somehow beats Bama but loses at home. they would be a No. 8 seed.

If Auburn goes 1-1 (beating Tennessee)

- 90.4% chance of getting in as No. 8 seed

If the Tigers beat Tennessee instead of Alabama they still have a 90% chance of making the field.

If Auburn goes 0-2

- 62.8% chance of getting in as Last Four In

Even if Auburn loses out, they still likely make it in the tournament as a No. 11 seed.

If Auburn goes 0-3 (loses first game of SEC tournament)

- 50.7% chance of getting in as Last Four In

Same thing. They can afford to go 0-3 and still have a 50/50 shot of making the postseason.

If Auburn goes 1-3 (beating UA or UT but loses first game of SEC tournament)

- 83.9% chance of getting in as No. 10 seed

The Tigers can beat Alabama or Tennessee, lose in the first round of the SEC tournament, and make it as a No. 10 seed.

If Auburn goes 1-3 (losing to both UA and UT, losing in SEC tournament quarterfinals)

- 69.7% chance of getting in as Last Four In

Auburn would still get in as a No. 11 seed.

If Auburn goes 2-1 (beating both UA and UT but losing in SEC tournament quarterfinals)

- 97.0% chance of getting in as No. 7 seed

This shows just how important these final two games of the regular season are to Auburn's resume.

If Auburn goes 2-2 (beating UA or UT, losing in SEC tournament quarterfinals)

- 93.1% chance of getting is as No. 8 seed

A loss in the quarterfinals would bump Auburn down to a No. 8 seed.

If Auburn goes 3-2 (beating UA or UT, losing in SEC tournament semifinals)

- 96.9% chance of getting in as No. 7 seed

A win in the quarterfinals would be nice.

If Auburn goes 4-2 (beating UA or UT, losing in SEC championship game)

- 97.7% chance of getting in as No. 6 seed

Getting all the way to the tourney title would push Auburn off the 7-10 line.

If Auburn goes 4-2 (losing to both UA and UT, winning SEC tournament)

- 97.5% chance of getting in as No. 6 seed

Note Auburn's chance goes slightly down if they lose their last two regular season games. An auto-bid would be in store for the Tigers, but it wouldn't mean much.