Reranking the teams left in the Sweet Sixteen
Every February the same statement is thrown out into the college basketball sphere: "I think the Final Four is going to be pretty chalk, I don't see anyone beating (insert good team here)."
By the time March rolls around, the tune changes. The NCAA Tournament ends up being wild and people get to witness the tournament take down a plethora of squads that we thought were borderline invincible just a few weeks prior.
Now, we've whittled the field down to the best sixteen teams, with a few cinderella's left still with huge aspirations. Things should get even crazier as we approach the Final Four.
Here is a look at every team in the Sweet Sixteen reranked from worst to best.
16. Iowa State Cyclones (22-12)
The Cyclones have gotten by on grit and a stingy defense thus far, holding both LSU and Wisconsin underneath 55 points on their way to the Sweet Sixteen.
They'll have their shot at an Elite Eight, as they face off against one of the worst teams left in the field in Miami, but the Hurricanes have an efficient offense that should give ISU problems.
15. Saint Peter's Peacocks (21-11)
The Peacocks, much like the Cyclones, have played solid defense in two upset victories over Kentucky and Murray State. What will likely hold Saint Peter's back is their lack of size and struggles on the offensive end.
However, don't discount the Peacocks. They've shot well through two games and are capable of making a deeper run if Purdue's defense is suspect (as it usually is).
14. Miami Hurricanes (25-10)
Miami scraped by USC before throttling Auburn to advance. The Hurricanes pride themselves in being one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, but have played scrappy defense in the tournament and are riding a wave of momentum.
I don't see Miami making it past the Elite Eight, and to be honest their draw to get there has been extremely favorable.
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (27-8)
Despite this being Arkansas' second Sweet Sixteen in consecutive seasons, something about this team concerns me. The Razorbacks outlasted Vermont before struggling against New Mexico State. Neither game was pretty nor impressive.
If their offense isn't clicking, Gonzaga may give Arkansas fits. JD Notae is going to need to shoot better in order for the Hogs to advance further than they have.
12. Michigan Wolverines (19-14)
The Wolverines have been firing on all cylinders since Juwan Howard returned from suspension. What was once a fringe bubble team that "didn't deserve to be in the tournament" according to some has now turned into a Sweet Sixteen team.
What may cause problems against Villanova is guard play. Michigan doesn't have terrible guard play (DeVantae' Jones, Eli Brooks) but I think it will be enough to get past the Wildcats. Nonetheless, the Wolverines have definitely overachieved in postseason play and should give Villanova a tough time.
11. Providence Friars (27-5)
The luckiest team in the nation (according to KenPom) has unsurprisingly made the Sweet Sixteen. How much further can the Friars go?
They'll need their offense to be next level against Kansas. The big three of Jared Bynum, Nate Watson, and Al Durham has carried the team to this point, but I'm curious to see if they're enough to get Providence past the Jayhawks.
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-9)
The Red Raiders have lacked only one thing this season - a true point guard. What they haven't lacked is a strong starting five and a whole lot of intensity on the defensive end. They've given teams fits all year long with their "No-Middle" defense, and they've continued to wreak havoc in the postseason.
The only thing that's holding this team back is their guard play on the offensive end. Tech ranks in the bottom third of the country in turnover percentage (20% of Texas Tech possessions result in a turnover) and three point shooting (32.2% from beyond the arc is 251st nationally). If they can get slightly better play against Duke, the defense will likely carry them to the title game.
9. North Carolina Tar Heels (26-9)
North Carolina is proof that if you get good guard play, you can beat anyone in the NCAA Tournament. RJ Davis poured in 30 points in Carolina's upset win over No. 1 seed Baylor, while the powerful frontcourt court duo of Armando Bacot (16.5 PPG, 13.5 RPG in the tournament) and Brady Manek (27.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG in the tournament) did their thing.
The Tar Heels are red hot right now, and if their offense continues to play like it is right now, they'll be a very tough out for anyone they matchup against. Despite scoring over 90 points in both tournament outings, North Carolina could stand to get more consistent play from Caleb Love, who scored 23 vs Marquette but could only muster up 5 points and 6 turnovers while fouling out against Baylor.
8. Purdue Boilermakers (29-7)
Purdue is loaded with offensive weapons, and it's yielded a second weekend in the NCAA Tournament. The defense has been incredibly inconsistent this season, but the issues have yet to show up here during March Madness.
Purdue has the ability to beat Saint Peter's, defeat either North Carolina or UCLA, and get to the Elite Eight. They've got too many players that could go off at a moment's notice. The combination of Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams, and Zach Edey may be too much for opponents... if Purdue's defense holds up. This team still has National Championship aspirations, but they'll need to step up defensively if they want to make a deeper run.
7. UCLA Bruins (27-7)
The Bruins boast a very strong lineup that features talent at every position. Just about everyone is back from last year's Final Four run, and the Bruins have their eye on another with star Johnny Juzang at the helm.
From what I can tell there isn't a true weakness on this team statistically. UCLA is top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they have a star player, their guard play is consistent, and they don't turn the ball over. Shot selection may be what ends up killing this team, but even then, they still have the athleticism to make tough shots.
6. Duke Blue Devils (30-6)
This team is efficient. The Blue Devils are excellent at getting to the rim at all five positions because of the length they posses (26th nationally in average height). Much like UCLA, the Blue Devils are incredibly disciplined. They don't make mistakes.
The area of concern for Coach K & Co. is Duke's inability to create turnovers. If they run into an offense that isn't mistake prone and can hit their shots, then Duke may be in trouble. They were almost in huge trouble against Michigan State before the Spartans fumbled their lead with less than two minutes left.
The Blue Devils are still one of the favorites to win the national title. I'm curious to see if Coach K can finish his career on top.
5. Villanova Wildcats (28-7)
'Nova does not elect to play with pace, but quite frankly they haven't had to. Slow-paced victories over Delaware and Ohio State showed that the Wildcats can inflict their will on any opponent.
The starting lineup has been balanced and effective. Collin Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, and Brandon Slater form arguably one of the strongest starting fives in the field. The Wildcats have one of the toughest paths to the title, having to defeat upstart Michigan before facing either Arizona or Houston in the Elite Eight just to get out of their own region. It's going to be tough, but Villanova has what it takes.
4. Houston Cougars (31-5)
Most fans think of defense when they think of the Cougars - but the offense has been just as efficient - the Cougars are 10th nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. As previously noted, good guard play is needed in order to win a title, and the combo of Jamal Shead and Kyler Edwards has been deadly.
It's a shame that Houston has to face off against Arizona, because I believe both the Cougars and the Wildcats are two of the best teams left in the field.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-3)
Once again, the Bulldogs are loaded to the brim with talent, and once again they have their eyes aimed on a title. The question is, can Gonzaga finally win it? After shaky wins over Georgia State and Memphis, I'm beginning to question whether or not this team could get past the final four. A matchup against Purdue, UCLA, or North Carolina would not be favorable.
Keep an eye on how Gonzaga protects the rim from here on out. I'm certain they'll begin to struggle as they face tougher completion.
2. Kansas Jayhawks (30-6)
It's not a guarantee, but Kansas seems to have a fairly clear shot to the Final Four, having to beat Providence and either Iowa State or Miami to do so. Potential player of the year Ochai Agbaji has been stellar all season but hasn't been his usual self through the tournament this far.
If Agbaji's struggles continue, the Jayhawks might not make much further. If he can recapture his regular season magic, then Bill Self may have another National Championship berth on his hands.
1. Arizona Wildcats (33-3)
It's been stated plenty of times recently, but I'm going to say it anyway: Arizona is the most aesthetically pleasing team in college basketball. Their offense has incredible flow. They shoot the three well, but they're known for their ability to attack the rim (Arizona is 5th nationally in two point field goal percentage at 57.6%).
The Wildcats also defend the rim very well (second nationally in defensive two point field goal percentage) considering they're one of the tallest teams in all of college basketball - second tallest to be specific.
Pace has been a huge point of emphasis for first year head coach Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats love to get out and run in transition, while pressuring their opponents into faster possessions.
Arizona is probably the favorite to win the title as of right now, and if they don't make it to the Final Four, it would be a disappointment.
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