Auburn football 2022 statistical predictions: Offense

Who will exceed last year's production, and will it translate to wins?

The 2022 Auburn Tigers roster has a lot of familiar faces - virtually the entire offensive line and TE room is back, as well as the top two running backs in Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter. Top receivers Kobe Hudson (UCF) and Demetris Robertson (out of eligibility) have departed, but several returners like Shedrick Jackson, Ja'Varrius Johnson, and Malcolm Johnson Jr figure to be integral parts of this year's offense. 

On defense, many top names have moved on, with linebackers Zakoby McClain and Chandler Wooten, safety Smoke Monday, and 2nd round pick Roger McCreary all having departed The Plains. Auburn's defense has brought in potential impact transfers and have gotten another year of maturation from backups, and appear to be in a good position to field a Top 5 SEC defense this season.

Today, let's look at the returners on the offensive side of the ball and see who can be expected to exceed last year's production.

© Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

RB Tank Bigsby: 2021 = 223 carries for 1099 yards (4.9 YPC) w/ 10 TDs;  21 catches for 184 yards (8.76 YPC)

Prediction: OVER  

Tank played in every game last season, but saw curiously low usage in multiple games, not breaking 16 carries in four SEC games (W vs LSU, 9 carries for 27 yds; L vs UGA, 10 carries for 28 yds; L vs TAMU, 15 carries for 69 yds; L vs Miss St, 16 carries for 41 yards) as well as only 16 carries for 96 yards in the Birmingham Bowl loss to Houston. With a healthier and improved offensive line opening holes and better skill talent on the outside to keep defenses honest, look for Tank Bigsby to cap his college career with another 1000-yd+ season with improved receptions. 

Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

RB Jarquez Hunter: 2021 = 89 carries for 593 yards (6.7 YPC) w/ 3 TDs; 12 catches for 61 yards (5.1 YPC) w/ 1 TD

Prediction: OVER  

Arguably Auburn's most impactful newcomer of 2021, the true freshman from Philadelphia, MS provided a good compliment to Tank Bigsby and earned a large role early in the season (447 yards & 3 TDs over his first five games) before fading down the stretch with only 146 yards and no scores over his final eight games. Another season of physical development, renewed health, and improved blocking should allow Hunter to continue to contribute at a high level as RB2 for 2022.

© Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

WR Shedrick Jackson: 40 catches for 527 yards (13.18 YPC) w/ 1 TD

Prediction: UNDER  

We know very little about Auburn's expected wide receiver rotation, other than Shedrick Jackson is expected to be one of the top guys for a 2nd season. He's reportedly significantly improved his strength and conditioning, but replacing the departed Kobe Hudson and Demetris Robertson with a deeper rotation that includes incoming transfers Dashlin Worsham (Miami) and Koy Moore (LSU), potential breakout freshman Camden Brown, and converted TE Landen King means that any individual receiver should be assumed to get a smaller share of the passing game than last year's top-heavy rotation.

(AP Photo/Butch Dill)

TE John Samuel Shenker: 33 catches for 413 yards (12.52 YPC), 0 TDs

Prediction: OVER  

Auburn's senior tight end was the first option out of the room and had one of the better seasons for a tight end in recent Auburn history, setting positional records for single season receptions (33) and yardage (413). The super-senior, who has stepped away from the baseball program to commit to football full-time, had eight games last year with two or less catches (1/8yds vs Alabama State, 2/26 vs Georgia State, 1/20 vs UGA, 1/12 vs Arkansas, 1/5 vs Ole Miss, 2/14 vs Miss State, 0 catches vs S. Carolina, 1/22 vs Alabama). As the elder statesman of the room and under a new offensive scheme that plans to utilize the tight end more, look for Shenker to narrowly exceed last year's production solely through weekly consistency in the passing game. 

AP Photo/Vasha Hunt

TE/WR Landen King: 5 catches for 59 yards (11.80 YPC), 1 TD

Prediction: OVER 

The young tight end didn't get much playing time last year, making two catches each against Georgia and Arkansas and then chipping in a late touchdown in the Iron Bowl against Alabama. With an offseason move to wide receiver, look for Auburn to utilize the speedy 6'5 athlete in specific packages and situations to exploit mismatches in coverage and produce triple digit yardage with multiple touchdowns in 2022. 

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