Auburn football's bye week: Five questions, five stats at the halfway point of the season

Five questions, five interesting stats for Auburn entering the bye week.

Auburn enters the bye week in desperate need of answering a few questions, healing a few injuries, and just overall reevaluation.

If Harsin is going to save his job, he's got some serious adjusting to do.

Or none, considering the offensive scheme just hasn't tried to change through seven games. Not really much Auburn could do to change given the situation across the offensive line.

Here are five questions and five important statistics to keep in mind as the bye week rolls on.

Is this Robby Ashford's team for the rest of the season?

Austin Perryman/AU Athletics

Since taking over the starting job against Missouri, Ashford is completing 46.8% of his passes and has thrown three touchdowns to three interceptions (while adding three TDs on the ground).

Although many are frustrated with Ashford's extreme turnover issues and inaccuracy, there are a couple of reasons to believe he remains the primary signal caller through the end of the season.

Ashford is significantly more explosive than TJ Finley. Robby is third in the SEC in yards per completion and has been the better downfield passer of the two.

Finley's lack of mobility also hinders the offense, especially considering the offensive line's inability to pass block.

Even if TJ returns from his shoulder injury fully healthy next week, it could still be the Robby Ashford show from here on out.

Turnover woes

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Here's a stat that has been floating around the Twittersphere for quite some time: Auburn is now dead last in FBS (131st) in turnover margin, sitting at -11.

They're dead last in fumbles and last in the SEC in interceptions thrown. For all of the talk about Harsin being a quarterback developer this offseason, it's not been even a underneath average product that they've put on the field - it has been downright terrible.

If the Tigers even cut the margin in half (which would still put them at last in the SEC), it's almost certain that Auburn would have won at least one more game thus far.

Can the running game truly improve?

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

The rushing attack popped off for over 300 yards against the Rebels last Saturday after being inept against Power Five schools so far this season.

Because of the initially slow (and now sharp) decline in the trenches over the last several years, it's hard to sit here and predict that because of one performance, the team is all of the sudden going to find a spark within their offense that they didn't know they had.

Bigsby being able to just get to the second level against any defense is huge, but keep in mind Auburn still has four more SEC games left on the slate.

No amount of statistical data in Auburn's favor can accurately predict a positive game moving forward because the Tigers have been bad against everybody.

Well, until last week.

Explosive plays negated by bad offensive line play

Eric Starling/Auburn Daily

It's been feast or famine for the Tigers' offense. Auburn is top five in the SEC in plays of 30+, 40+, and 50+ yards, yet is 10th in the league in total yards per game.

There's not much else to say here other than the extremely lackluster offensive line performance has killed the Tigers' ability to do just about anything consistently on offense. A lot of third down and long situations where Ashford is asked to just do something (more often than not, he hasn't) which results in a boom or bust offense.

An interesting correlation: Auburn ranks 58th out of the 64 Power Five teams in passing yards per game. Of the six schools underneath the Tigers, two of them have already fired their head coach (Colorado, Georgia Tech) and the other four are a combined 9-11 against FBS competition (Iowa, Kansas State, Rutgers and Vanderbilt).

So, if you can't throw the ball, your coach is either getting fired or you just are bad (excluding Kansas State, we love the Wildcats)

One would think that this is not company Auburn wants to be in (again, excluding Kansas State, who is a glorified military academy) .

Is bowl eligibility possible?

Eric Starling/Auburn Daily

Here are the Tigers' final five games and what ESPN's FPI says about the Auburn's odds:

Vs Arkansas (55.4% chance to win)

At Mississippi State (20.3% chance to win)

Vs Texas A&M (45.1% chance to win)

Vs Western Kentucky (58.7% chance to win...!!!)

At Alabama (4.0% chance to win)

If the FPI gets it right, Auburn would finish with a 5-7 record. An upset against MSU, A&M or Alabama would be needed in order for Auburn to make a bowl game (while not messing up against Arkansas or WKU).

Oscar Chapman is a weapon

© Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Auburn is 2nd in the SEC in total punting yards. Punter Oscar Chapman should at the very least be in contention for the Ray Guy Award (he is on the watch list) and will likely end up being an All-SEC selection at the end of the season.

His ability to control the field after the Tigers stall on offense has been valuable.

Why is Auburn's rush defense so bad?

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers just haven't been plugging gaps. They've been missing assignments all season long, and it doesn't look like things are going to get any better - the linebacking core has been awful up until this point in the year, and what was once thought to be one of the better defensive lines in the league has just sort of been average at best.

It feels like a coaching issue more than anything, considering the Tigers still have a decent amount of talent on that side of the ball. I find it hard to believe that it's mostly a talent issue because it would mean that Auburn has just simply missed on the majority of their four-star talent types. All of these missed tackles are just chock up to a lack of talent...? That's really hard to believe.

Weird how the dam seems to have burst after the Penn State game.

A strong pass defense

Todd Van Emst / AU Athletics

Despite being awful in the front seven against the run, Auburn has been decent against the pass thus far. The Tigers rank 20th nationally in passing yards per game.

Of course, opponents haven't really felt the need to throw against Auburn this season (only 28.6 pass attempts per game) because of how bad the run defense has been, but overall there haven't been as many defensive breakdowns as there were last year.

When will Bryan Harsin be let go?

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

According to reports, Harsin will likely be retained until either:

a) An athletic director is hired (which could happen this week)

b) The end of the season, regardless of whether or not there is an AD in place

It feels like it's all but been decided that Auburn will be moving on without him one way or another before 2023.

Even if the Tigers find a way to finish 7-5, there are several signs pointing towards this being a poorly operated team, so even if that mark is reached it still feels like he will be out.

Auburn can't stay on the field

Eric Starling/Auburn Daily

Ahh yes, third down. The Tigers have faced 96 of them this year (third-most in the SEC). They've converted 33.3% of them. That's last in the league and eighth-worst among Power Five schools.

The list of schools that are worse?

Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Kansas State, Colorado, Rutgers, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Iowa.

Really, really bad company to be in.

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