Lindsay's Locks for Week Seven of college football
Not even talking about last week. Went 0-5, first 0-spot we've put up all year, but we're still up in units so let's get back on the wagon and secure the bag.
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Week Seven's picks
Pick #1: USC RB Travis Dye - OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards
USC's taking on Utah in a prime-time Top 20 matchup that should give someone a path to the Pac-12 crown, and Vegas thinks this game will feature over 60 points. USC has a trip of talented backs, and Dye's led the pack in carries and "explosive" runs, as well as hitting 100+ yards in every game but one. Take the over.
Pick #2: Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart - UNDER 214.5 Passing Yards
Wait, a bet ON Auburn? Yep! No matter what you think about the potential outcome of the game, there's potential here to make some money. Jaxson Dart threw for 400+ yards last week, yes, but it was Vandy. He hasn't broken that number in any other game this season AND Auburn's only allowed one QB to pass that number, Chevan Cordeiro from San Jose State, on 40 attempts. Between Ole Miss's dual threats in the backfield of Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins and Dart keeping the ball on the read-option, look for Ole Miss to keep the ball on the ground enough for the under to hit.
Pick #3: Kansas RB Devin Neal - OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards
The resurgence of Kansas is one of the storylines of the season, and Devin Neal's one of the featured players. Daniel Hinshaw Jr's out with an injury, so he's getting the majority of the carries now. With QB Jaylon Daniels unavailable, the path is there to as many carries as Neal's conditioning will allow. To make it even better, he's playing Oklahoma's rushing defense, which is, to put it politely, not good (their 207 yards per game allowed is 122th out of 131 FBS teams). TCU dropped over 360 rushing yards on them, and Texas almost broke 300 as well. As Locked On Auburn Discord member cnd01 said:
If you run a buck sweep vs OU there's a 25% chance the end zone is the only thing stopping your QB.
Pick #4: Notre Dame RB Audric Estime - OVER 78.5 Rush Yards
While we're picking on bad rush defenses, Stanford is 121st in FBS with 206 yards per game. Estime for Notre Dame has taken over the RB1 job from Chris Tyree, putting up 76, 134, & 97 yards per game over the last three contests. Stanford, conversely, has allowed the opponent's RB1 to break 100 yards in the last three games and allows over 5.6 yards per carry. We're establishing it this weekend, folks.
Pick #5: Arizona WR Dorian Singer - OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards
We picked on some bad rush defenses, let's take advantage of injuries. Washington lost both CB Trent Mcduffie and CB Kyler Gordon to the NFL Draft (Chiefs and Bears, respectively). Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, they've started five different starting cornerbacks over the six games they've played, trying to find anyone who can show the ability to cover a receiver. They're 76th in passing yards allowed this season, with 234.5 yards per game and 12.35 yards per completion. Singer's broken eighty yards in three of his five games. Let's bank on the inexperience costing Washington in this one.
Bet: USC RB Travis Dye OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart UNDER 214.5 Passing Yards, Kansas RB Devin Neal OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards, Notre Dame RB Audric Estime OVER 78.5 Rush Yards, Arizona WR Dorian Singer OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards.
Odds options:
Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x
Final Thoughts:
Biggest concerns here are Dart having himself a day if Auburn gets up early and Arizona struggling to get it going from a pass protection standpoint, but I like this slate.
Enjoy the games, everyone.
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