Auburn football ranked No. 21 in final SP+ 2022 preseason projections

The Tigers are inside the top 25 of ESPN's SP+ rankings to begin the season.

On Sunday morning, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his final SP+ 2022 preseason projections for the upcoming college football season.

The Auburn Tigers, who are unranked in both the USA Today Coaches poll as well as the AP Top 25 poll will enter the season at No. 21 in the SP+ rankings.

What exactly is SP+?

According to Connelly, "SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we (ESPN & Connelly) have been able to gather to date."

Here is what the SP+ rankings say about Auburn, their offensive and defensive projections, as well as their projected win total (including conference play).

Overall SP+: 14.4

Eric Starling

The Tigers have an overall SP+ rating of +14.4, which is good for 21st nationally.

The No. 21 ranking differs significantly from the College Football Power Index (FPI), another power rankings model released by ESPN. FPI projections say Auburn is the No. 11 team in the country, with an FPI rating of +13.6 (expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field).

While this ten spot difference between these two models is significant, its worth nothing that the FPI rankings were released late in the spring and to my knowledge have not been updated since (at least, not updated as often as the SP+ rankings).

Then again, not a whole lot has happened for the Tigers between the release of the FPI and the start of fall camp. These two rating systems aren't the same, sure, but they're classified underneath the same terminology (power rankings/ratings). It's interesting that they disagree so strongly on the Tigers.

Here is a look at how the SP+ rankings differ on all SEC teams:

Alabama - SP+: No. 1 FPI: No. 1 (0 spot difference)

Arkansas - SP+: No. 14 FPI: No. 26 (12 spot difference)

Auburn - SP+: No. 21 FPI: No. 11 (10 spot difference)

Florida - SP+: No. 26 FPI: No. 29 (3 spot difference)

Georgia - SP+: No. 2 FPI: No. 3 (1 spot difference)

Kentucky - SP+: No. 11 FPI: No. 18 (7 spot difference)

LSU - SP+: No. 28 FPI: No. 10 (18 spot difference)

Mississippi State - SP+: No. 20 FPI: No. 24 (4 spot difference)

Ole Miss - SP+: No. 9 FPI: No. 17 (8 spot difference)

Missouri - SP+: No. 50 FPI: No. 56 (6 spot difference)

South Carolina - SP+: No. 37 FPI: No. 45 (8 spot difference)

Tennessee - SP+: No. 10 FPI: No. 25 (15 spot difference)

Texas A&M - SP+: No. 8 FPI: No. 12 (4 spot difference)

Vanderbilt - SP+: No. 108 FPI: No. 108 (0 spot difference)

Offensive SP+: 32.1

Michael Chang/Getty Images

Auburn's offensive SP+ is their weakest spot in the ratings, coming in at 42nd nationally.

It's not much of a surprise given the fact that the Tigers: 

- Are 65th nationally in offensive returning production

- Scored one collective second-half offensive touchdown in their final five games in 2021 

- Only averaged 28.3 points per game (22.3 in SEC play)

Based on the definition of the model, "a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency," it could be assumed that the system is leaning on the returning production along the offensive line as well as Auburn's decent running game to project above average offensive performances against the schedule. It is difficult to believe that the SP+ model is relying on the returning production in the passing game to predict the +32.1 rating it has for the offense.

It's usually not fair to base predictions on last season's statistics, but here is where Auburn's 2022 FBS opponents finished in rush defense in 2021:

San Jose State: 36th (135.3 ypg)

Penn State: 67th (153.8 ypg)

Missouri: 124th (227.9 ypg)

LSU: 46th (140.8 ypg)

Georgia: 2nd (78.9 ypg)

Ole Miss: 104th (190.4 ypg)

Arkansas: 68th (153.9 ypg)

Mississippi State: 12th (113.4 ypg)

Texas A&M: 35th (134.8 ypg)

Western Kentucky: 90th (168.4 ypg)

Alabama: 4th (86.0 ypg)

Five opponents were worse than average (65th nationally is average) at stopping the run. However, only three opponents gave up more rushing yards per game in 2021 than Auburn gained on a per game average (161.2).

This could simply boil down to the talent the Tigers have on roster compared to the rest of the country.

After all, this is what Connelly says about the SEC's "light heavyweights" - "Tennessee, Mississippi State and Auburn are all 15 spots higher in SP+ than in the AP poll. Florida is 12 spots higher, Ole Miss 11 and Kentucky nine. Two main things to take from this: First, SP+ really likes the SEC this season. The combination of quality returning production averages and high-level recruiting and transfer portal usage should make for strong output in what is generally college football's strongest conference."

Defensive SP+: 17.7

© Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

The defense, as expected, has a strong SP+ rating at +17.7, good for 14th in the country.

There is not much to say here that has not already been said about the Tigers' defense, which features one of the stronger front sevens not just in the SEC, but in college football. Depth may be a bit of a concern up front in certain areas (EDGE, linebacker maybe) but if the unit stays relatively healthy it should perform.

The secondary are where most questions lie. However, Bryan Harsin and defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding have had nothing but positive things to say about the defensive backs, citing better communication, depth, and leadership, three things that the Tigers struggled with at times on the backend in 2021.

Now is the time to remind both fans and the SP+ ratings that last season Auburn finished ninth in the SEC or worse in passing yards allowed per game, opponent passer rating, and opponent completion percentage.

There are individual reasons to believe those numbers will be better in 2022, and they almost need to be... especially if the defense is going to live up to the rating it has been given.

Projected Win Total: 6.6

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Once again, the SP+ model is in disagreement with the FPI. The FPI predicts Auburn to win 7.4 games, whereas Connelly's system predicts 6.6.

Not a whole lot to note here. Seven teams on Auburn's schedule rank higher in the SP+. Three rank higher in the FPI. The SP+ ranking suggests that Auburn is legitimately better than five of their opponents they will face this season, and should be favored in two home matchups (presumably Arkansas and Penn State?), skewing the win total up to 6.6.

Projected Conference Win Total: 3.3

Alex Keller/Auburn Athletics

If the model projects a 6-6, 3-5 SEC campaign for the Tigers in 2022, that would indicate a projected loss to Penn State at home.

Auburn has the lowest projected win total inside the top 25 of the SP+, and one of only five teams projected to win less than seven games inside the top 40.

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