Auburn football schedule analysis: Grading the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Can the Tigers recover from last season's collapse against the Bulldogs?
Auburn football schedule analysis: Grading the Mississippi State Bulldogs
Auburn football schedule analysis: Grading the Mississippi State Bulldogs /

Auburn fans probably don't want to reminisce on last year's matchup with the Bulldogs.

Unfortunately, some of the things that occurred in that matchup need to be discussed in this one.

Almost nothing has changed about Mississippi State's offense, an offense that overcame a 28-3 deficit against the Tigers last season and is expected to build on the 7-6 record that Mike Leach & Co. earned in 2021.

The Bulldogs are experienced, they're battle-tested... but extremely inconsistent.

Let's take a look at how MSU shakes out at each position.

Quarterback: B+

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Will Rogers returns after setting several Mississippi State passing record in 2021. After accounting for 36 touchdowns as a sophomore, there's reason to believe that Rogers will either maintain his offensive output or improve.

If he goes down, however, there is not a lot of depth behind him.

Running Back: C+

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

The production (63.2 rushing yards per game in 2021, last in FBS) isn't there. Neither are the yards per carry (3.04, last in the SEC).

Dillion Johnson (485 yards, four touchdowns, 5.4 yards per carry) and Jo'Quavious Marks (416 yards, six touchdowns) were also legitimate receiving threats, as they are the top two returning pass-catchers (148 combined receptions in 2021) as well.

Mississippi State didn't run the ball last season, nor could they. But the personnel MSU has in their backfield is versatile and played well within Leach's system.

Wide Receiver: B

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Four of the top five receivers are back from last year's squad. The one departure? Thousand-yard receiver Makai Polk, who left for the NFL after one year in Starkville.

The aforementioned Jo'Quavious Marks and Dillion Johnson combined for 924 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season. In the actual receiver room are veteran Austin Williams (617 yards) and Jaden Walley (628 yards). Lideatrick Griffin and Caleb Ducking are the two projected starters beside Williams and Walley.

With Polk gone, the room as a whole is decent, and the experience is plentiful. There does not seem like there is one standout player that bumps the core past the current grade.

Offensive Line: C+

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A 97th place finish in total sacks allowed in 2021 might be inflated by the amount of pass plays MSU called (704 pass attempts, first nationally), but there is reason to believe that despite the experience the line probably won't be much improved this year.

Four total starters are back, but Kwatrivous Johnson should be sitting behind Cole Smith at right guard. Left tackle Charles Cross is off to the NFL. Both projected tackles have very little experience.

The interior of the line isn't the biggest concern for Mississippi State, considering their style of play, but rather the outside of the line. Not having a surefire answer at either tackle given the way the line performed last season does not inspire confidence.

Offensive outlook vs Auburn:

State looked abysmal against the Tigers for about a half in 2021. Then, unstoppable.

With defensive coordinator Derek Mason out, and a head coach (Harsin) that saw the collapse and will prepare better this season still in, it stands to reason that Auburn should weather the storm against MSU's Air Raid.

The secondary for the Tigers is a bit of a question mark right now but should be figured out by the time this game rolls around (Nov. 5th).

Honestly, I understand that Leach made Auburn look like a fool last year, and I understand that MSU has a ton of players returning, but I don't see them putting up points like they did in Jordan-Hare a season ago.

Defensive Line: B+

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

This was a solid unit in 2021, finishing 12th nationally in rush defense and 65th nationally (FBS average) in total sacks. Three starters return on this three-man front. Five of the six players in the projected two-deep are seniors.

Cam Young (53 tackles) and Jaden Crumedy (23 tackles) were solid run stuffers. Randy Charlton (35 tackles, four sacks) was the unit's best pass rusher.

Linebacker: B-

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The linebacking core did one thing well and one thing poorly: They stopped the run and got lost in coverage.

Despite Tyrus Wheat, Nathaniel Watson, and Jett Johnson combining for 215 tackles last season, the core put up poor PFF grades in pass coverage.

If State can improve their pass coverage from a season ago, this would be one of the better units in the nation. If not, it's middle of the pack in the SEC.

Defensive Back: C

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Three starters return from a unit that finished 71st nationally in passing yards allowed per game (231.8), 97th in completion percentage (63.8%), 79th in yards per attempt (7.5), and 82nd in opponent passer rating (137.93).

Those are not good numbers. Normally a team may finish in the bottom half of the country in a couple of pass defense stats, but to finish low in four major categories is a reflection on a couple of things.

First its a reflection on scheme. Now Mississippi State may run the 3-4 in pursuit of having a solid run defense while gambling with their secondary. That's a viable option - unfortunately I don't speak Zach Arnett's language and could not tell you if that is his strategy.

The second is a reflection on college football as a whole and MSU's lack of adjustment (or inability to) last season. More teams are becoming pass-happy. Not being able to shut things down with some amount of consistency has to change for this secondary this season. Fortunately, there's a ton of experience, and a leader in Emmanuel Forbes in the defensive backfield.

I trust State will have things improve (if marginally) this year.

Special Teams: D

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The kicking game was awful for State last year. Leach brought in two transfers to battle things out. Massimo Biscardi (46-of-57 on field goals at Coastal Carolina) should step in and provide some consistency. Punter Brandon Ruiz is gone, and senior Archer Trafford is slated to take his place.

Defensive outlook vs Auburn:

On paper, the strategy for State seems easy - focus on Tank Bigsby and make Auburn throw the ball to win. If the secondary shows any sign of improvement this season, that's a viable gameplan.

The question is, can MSU hold Auburn's offense from putting up enough points to win? The secondary struggled mightily against Bo Nix last season, and if Auburn is healthy at QB there's reason to believe the Tigers can air the ball out a little bit in this matchup.


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Lance Dawe
LANCE DAWE

College football enthusiast. Wing connoisseur. Editor and contributor for @TheAuburnDaily. Host of @LockedonUK.