Lindsay's Locks for Week Three of college football

Here are your locks for the weekend.

Took some bad beats last week - Alabama's underperformance against Texas (who, BTW, is still not back) meant that RB Jahmyr Gibbs finished well under his projection of 87.5 yards. Tank Bigsby only had 51 in a San Jose State game that was closer than everyone expected, but hitting on the gimme Tom Brady yardage prop, KJ Jefferson punching one into the endzone against South Carolina, and Gus Malzahn doing Gus Malzahn things with QB John Rhys Plumlee meant we came out of the weekend with SOME money.   

This season, Auburn Daily has partnered with Prize Picks to bring some fun and variety to the picks for the 2022 season. Prize Picks is a free app that allows you to choose any 2,3,4 or 5 players from ANY sport in your wagers, predict their over or under for the next game, and win big prizes if they do well! They have flex options, where you can still get paid on winning only 3 of 5 or 2 of 3, and you can have multiple sports in the same parley! Best of all, use promo code AUBURN to receive double on your first deposit, up to $100! That's promo code AUBURN for double your first deposit.

Week Three's picks

Pick #1: Kentucky QB Will Levis - OVER 229.5 Passing Yards

Kentucky is THRIVING under senior quarterback Will Levis, who has thrown for a combined 505 yards and 4 TDs in the Wildcats first two games, both victories. He broke 300 yards against an overmatched Miami of Ohio squad in week one before besting Florida QB Anthony Richardson in Week 2 as Kentucky upset a ranked Florida squad, 26-16. Look for Levis to be closer to his week one statistics against the Youngstown State Penguins.  

Pick #2: Florida State RB Treshaun Ward - OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards

We're gonna keep going to this well until it runs dry. Louisville allows 207.5 rushing yards per game, good for 105th in the country. Treshaun Ward is Florida State's leading rusher with 176 yards at a healthy 5.9 YPC, and doing it in balanced fashion - he season long is only 21 yards. Look for him to establish some dominance against a Louisville defense that has not shown the inclination of stopping anyone on the ground at this point in the season - we picked on them last week with John Rhys Plumlee's rushing prop, we'll do it again.   

Pick #3: Alabama QB Bryce Young - OVER 275.5 Passing Yards

What's that, Alabama underperformed against Texas, and didn't look good on offense? Look for Nick Saban to light a fire under his squad as they take on an unlucky ULM team. The line's somewhere in the 60s for this game - we just know that Bryce Young may not rush a lot in paycheck games, but he typically throws for around 300 yards or so and there's no reason Alabama would call him off early this week. 

Pick #4: Indiana RB Shaun Shivers - OVER 0.5 Rushing TDs

Xavier McKinney's worst nightmare has been at it again this season, with 183 yards on the ground over his first two games and two touchdowns. Indiana takes on a Western Kentucky squad that's coasted to their first two victories over passing-oriented teams in a 38-27 victory over Austin Peay and a 49-17 win at Hawaii. Look for Shivers to find the endzone at least once against the Hilltoppers.   

Pick #5: Raiders K Daniel Carlson - OVER 1.5 FG Made 

Don't like Auburn's options on Prize Picks this week, so we're doubling up on former Auburn players with a little NFL action. Carlson went 2-2 on field goals last week against the Chargers, and for the last two years he averages more than two field goals attempted per game (35 in 2020, 43 in 2021). With the Raiders taking on an Arizona squad indoors this week, look for Carlson to have plenty of opportunities to boot a few through.   

Bet: Kentucky QB Will Levis OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards, Florida State RB Treshaun Ward OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards, Alabama QB Bryce Young OVER 275.5 Passing Yards, Indiana RB Shaun Shivers OVER 0.5 Rushing TDs, and Raiders K Daniel Carlson OVER 1.5 FG Made

Odds options:

Flex Play: 5 of 5 correct = 10x, 4 correct = 2x, 3 correct = 0.4x

Final Thoughts:

Alabama's running game dominating ULM is a risk for Bryce Young not needing to air it out, but I feel good about these. All overs, as we do, because scared money don't make money. 

Enjoy the games, everyone.

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