Auburn football cracks top 10 in ESPN's preseason FPI

The Tigers are projected to be a solid team in 2022.

Every single year, ESPN's FPI does something different that makes you scratch your head.

For those who don't know, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

My assumption is that the formula works best during the season, because preseason projections are usually off. For instance, Mississippi State was one of the highest-ranked teams in the preseason FPI last year before ESPN made a correction. This season, Auburn has found its way inside the top 10 despite going 6-7 last year and entering the offseason having no clue who QB1 is.

According to the FPI, the Tigers will be 13.9 points better than the average Division I team on a neutral field. For anyone wondering, the most average team (in terms of talent, expected point margin, etc.) 2022 is projected to be UAB.

Here are some of Auburn's other projections within the FPI.

Projected record: 7.4-4.6

© Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Even though the Tigers are a preseason top 10 team, they are still projected to go 7-5. This makes sense, considering Auburn's strength of schedule is first nationally.

Chance to go undefeated: 0.0%

© John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN's FPI says there is no chance Auburn goes undefeated.

Chance to get to 6 wins: 91.9%

© John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Vegas currently has Auburn's win total set at 5. However, ESPN believes there is a very good chance Auburn surpasses that and is bowl eligible.

Chance to win the SEC West: 2.5%

AP Photo/Vasha Hunt

Auburn has the worst odds of any team inside the top 20 of winning their own division.

Chance to win the SEC

© Albert Cesare

Auburn also has the worst odds of any team inside the top 20 to win their conference.

Chance to make the College Football Playoff: 2.7

© Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn has a better shot of making the playoff than they do to win the SEC West.

Chance of making the National Championship: 0.8%

© Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Auburn has less than a one percent chance to make the title game according to ESPN. Those are the 12th best odds nationally.

Chance of winning the National Championship: 0.2%

© Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Auburn has the 10th best odds to win the National Championship.

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