Offense Holds Auburn Tigers Back in PFF Win Projections

Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze is slowly rebuilding the Auburn Tigers, but Pro Football Focus isn't convinced he's done enough on offense.

Auburn Tigers are counting on senior quarterback Payton Thorne taking a giant step forward in 2024. / Mickey Welsh / Advertiser / USA TODAY

Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze has brought on new members of the coaching staff and assembled a top-10 recruiting class for 2024 - their best recruiting class since 2020. All show that there have been potential steps made in the right direction. 

The Tigers are only projected to get 6.7 wins, according to Pro Football Focus's (PFF) season preview. External expectations for Auburn aren’t very high. They haven’t done better than a six-win season since 2019, and at best, they might have a one-win improvement according to PFF.

A top-10 recruiting class is certainly a step in the right direction. That hadn’t been the case since 2020. However, PFF believes the freshman aren't not going to change the Tigers' fortunes just yet, and the 28th-ranked transfer class isn't enough for an immediate impact. 

Quarterback and O-Line Problems

While PFF likes what Auburn has at the wideout and running back positions, they aren’t big on quarterback Payton Thorne and the offensive line. 

The Michigan State transfer arguably took a step back after coming to Auburn. Thorne saw a dip in the number of passing yards he threw for the third consecutive season 2,679 to 1,755. He also threw 16 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. He did see upticks in his rushing numbers - 515 yards and three touchdowns. But that’s a bonus. Auburn didn’t get enough from the passing game.

PFF lists quarterback play as Auburn's biggest weakness heading into 2024.

"Thorne is back for another season as the Tigers’ starting quarterback," wrote Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman on PFF. "While he is a very efficient runner, the same can’t be said for him as a passer. The redshirt senior’s 64.3 passing grade in 2023 placed only 101st among FBS signal-callers."

That being said, the offensive line did him no favors last season. He was sacked 31 times compared to 18 in his final year in Lansing. With the glaring exception of Alabama, the teams in the SEC who gave up the most sacks were near the bottom of the conference. 

Outside of incoming transfer Percy Lewis, Auburn hasn’t been able to do much to address the offensive line. Their offensive line recruits in the 2024 class consist of two three-stars and could be several years from developing.

However, there is a potential solution at quarterback. Four-star incoming freshman Walker White was a top-50 recruit and No. 4 quarterback nationally by 247Sports. Auburn hopes he sits and learns a year, but he could end up earning himself playing him if Freeze is unhappy with Thorne’s performance.

The goal is to finally take a major step forward. Right now, the experts at PFF don’t see them capable of doing so with the current quarterback being a major factor.