Predicting Auburn football's 2022 schedule

Can the Tigers exceed expectations in year two under Bryan Harsin?

It's time to be bullish on the Auburn Tigers.

After losing five straight to end the 2021 season, Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin found himself in some hot water during the spring. Some of it was unwarranted, but the message is clear: win, and win now.

A little unfair, given the circumstances. But a successful season is not out of the realm of possibility.

Can the Tigers meet expectations and keep things afloat?

Here are my predictions for Auburn's 2022 schedule.

Sept. 3rd Vs Mercer

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 99.9% (Auburn)

My prediction: Whoever starts at quarterback is almost irrelevant in this matchup. Regardless, the Tigers are going to do what they did early last season; establish the ground game. Tank Bigsby, Jarquez Hunter, and Damari Alston all have at least 60 yards rushing and Auburn cruises to a win over the Bears.

Worthy of note: Mercer is coming off of their best season (7-3) since 2013. While all signs point to an easy victory for the Tigers, do not sleep on the Bears. Their offense (31.9 points per game) is schematically similar to Georgia State, who gave Auburn fits last season.

Auburn 52, Mercer 13

Sept. 10 vs San Jose State

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 96.3% (Auburn)

My prediction: San Jose State's offense was devastatingly bad last season, scoring an average 20.0 points per game. SJSU's leading passer, receiver, and rusher are all gone.

The Spartans boast a stronger front seven compared to Mercer, but the Tigers will lean on the rushing attack once again to pick up another victory.

Auburn 44, San Jose State 9

Sept. 17th vs Penn State

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 62.6% (Auburn)

My prediction: Penn State scraped by the Tigers in Happy Valley last season after Auburn shot itself in the foot on three separate occasions. Pay close attention two two things:

- Auburn's offensive efficiency (can they cash in when they reach the red zone?)

- The front seven (how much pressure can both defenses apply?)

If State's offensive line is close to as bad as it was in 2021, the Tigers will make life difficult for James Franklin & Co. Expect a close game that features a key turnover or explosive play to give Auburn the win.

Auburn 26, Penn State 14

Sept. 24th vs Missouri

Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 85.6% (Auburn)

My prediction: The defense could not stop the run in 2021 (227.4 rushing yards allowed per game, 124th nationally).

If there's any sort of continuity on that side of the ball, this is an automatic bad matchup for Mizzou. Auburn continues to establish an offensive identity and utilities the ground game to get to 4-0.

Note: Missouri's offense should take a step back this season after the departure of SEC-leading rusher Tyler Badie. However, there is a decent amount of talent at wideout, and the offensive line is solid. If freshman QB Brady Cook has time, the Tigers could do some damage.

Auburn 31, Missouri 20

Oct. 1 vs LSU

© SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 57.4% (Auburn)

My prediction: A low scoring affair between two evenly matched teams. LSU has failed to score more than 27 points in the Tigers Bowl since 2017. Auburn's defense will be settled in at this point. The offense, although shaky, will get a big day out of John Samuel Shenker, who had over 100 receiving yards vs the Bayou Bengals last season.

A retooling LSU offense struggles to move the ball in a very rowdy Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn starts the season off 5-0.

Auburn 20, LSU 13

Oct. 8th at Georgia

© Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 88.7% (Georgia)

My prediction: Auburn has not won in Samford Stadium since 2005. This will not be the game that breaks the streak.

Georgia will be down by a score at halftime after struggling to get the offense going but takes control in the second half, winning by double digits.

Auburn 14, Georgia 30

Oct. 15th at Ole Miss

© Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 54.6% (Ole Miss)

My prediction: Ole Miss does not possess the starting talent Auburn has. A home-field advantage keeps the Rebels in it, but a monster day from Auburn's rushing attack makes the Tigers bowl eligible.

Anders Carlson seals this one with a late field goal.

Auburn 38, Ole Miss 34

Oct. 29th vs Arkansas

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 69.9% (Auburn)

My prediction: Auburn showed last season it can handle the Razorbacks' physical style of play. The Tigers don't run away with this one, but score early and never lose control.

The Hogs will rack up yardage but will struggle to get in the end zone.

Auburn 35, Arkansas 24

Nov. 5th at Mississippi State

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 52.3% (Mississippi State)

My prediction: Auburn's secondary was gouged by Will Rogers last season. Not so this year.

Mississippi State forces TJ Finley to throw the ball more than Auburn would like and he delivers, throwing a three touchdowns in an extremely close victory.

Auburn 28, Mississippi State 27

Nov. 12th vs Texas A&M

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 61.2% (Auburn)

My prediction: Texas A&M couldn't score an offensive touchdown against Auburn in 2021 and yet somehow won by 17 points.

This season, A&M will score a few offensive touchdowns and will win by 10 points. Auburn is stifled on offense and cannot find rhythm in the passing game.

Auburn 17, Texas A&M 27

Nov. 19 vs Western Kentucky

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 88.5% (Auburn)

My prediction: WKU lost a considerable amount of production from their record-setting offense last season. Jarret Doege, a QB transfer from West Virginia, up and left the team for Troy during fall camp.

This game may scare some folks, but the Tigers get it done against an inferior opponent.

Auburn 37, WKU 21

Nov. 26th at Alabama

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 89.9% (Alabama)

My prediction: Last year's Iron Bowl was an indicator that this coaching staff can drum up a solid gameplan and the team can hang with the best in the country.

However, much like the last few Iron Bowls in Tuscaloosa, the Tigers hold on during the first half but are broken apart in the second. Bama wins big.

Auburn 10, Alabama 48

Final record: 9-3, 5-3 SEC

Alex Keller/Auburn Athletics

Auburn was a couple of breaks away from winning nine games last season. More consistency under Harsin's second-year staff proves to be the difference in an extremely tight SEC West.

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