Creating Chaos: Five SEC teams that could shake up the conference in 2022

Here are five under the radar teams that could alter the SEC standings significantly.

Cha·os (noun): Complete disorder and confusion.

Col·lege foot·ball cha·os (entertainment): An expectation for a season, conference, team, game, or in-game scenario that is completely thrown out of the window in a bizarre or uncommon fashion (SEE: The 2007 and 2021 regular seasons).

To paraphrase Josh Pate, what makes college football great are moments. Moments within the regular season. Upsets, off-field drama, relationships, and storylines that are woven within the fabric of the sport. They can sometimes be hard to appreciate without the full picture in view.

It does not, however, make individual moments less valuable. Those experiences within themselves are their own, and can be viewed as such. 

It's just hard to stay focused on one moment without zooming out to ten others.

A single play can at the very least define a drive.

On a larger scale, a game. Maybe an it's an interception to seal an a back and forth affair. Perhaps a go-ahead touchdown scored to put a team up by double-digits, thus forcing the opponent to change scripts and play calling to a more desperate tune... pushing the contest further out of reach. 

A play can also define a season. Or a player. Or a coach. Or a program. 

College football is about turning points within turning points. One play, one moment, or one game could throw a tsunami of chaos into motion that would have otherwise stayed dormant. In doses, chaos can be used to make a sport without loads of parity a very entertaining product.

There may be no riper time for chaos in 2022 for arguably the strongest conference in the nation.

It feels odd to say, considering the SEC just had both winners of their east and west divisions compete in the national championship game.

Look past Alabama and Georgia and find two divisions that are at best unstable and at worst... potentially chaotic.

Here are five teams in the SEC that could provide some chaos to the league standings.

These are not predictions. These are chaos scenarios (both best and worst cases) for five SEC teams that could really shake things up.

Mississippi State

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Best chaos scenario: 9-3, 5-3 SEC

Sometimes, it's a little too easy to play the 'returning experience' card.

The Bulldogs have 80% of their 2021 production back (12th nationally, first in the SEC). That includes quarterback Will Rogers, four of the top five receivers from a season ago, all five top rushers, and three of their top four tacklers. That will prove to be valuable in an SEC West that could see a lot of shuffling between spots two and seven in the standings.

State caught some teams by surprise last season - A&M, Kentucky, Auburn - and they have a shot to scare some more this year (A&M, Arkansas, and Georgia all make trips to Starkville.)

Mississippi State will upset at least two SEC teams without succumbing to any pitfalls as they did in 2021. Depending on how the standings shake out, this could be the second place team in the West.

Worst chaos scenario: 3-9, 0-8 SEC

MSU's schedule is too brutal to survive. They have a six game stretch between October 1st and November 12th that includes games against Texas A&M, Arkansas, at Kentucky, at Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia.

Mike Leach and the Air Raid are extremely hot and cold. Year three produces a lot of cold, including a non-conference loss to either Memphis (who MSU lost to last year) or Arizona.

Tennessee

© Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Best chaos scenario: 11-1, 7-1 SEC

Imagine, for a moment, if the defense can get off the field on third down. Just a little more often. That would give the ball back to the offense. An offense that scored 0.498 points per play (13th nationally).

An offense that brings back eight starters and a Heisman dark horse at quarterback.

The Vols get Bama, Florida, and Kentucky at home. There's a legitimate shot for UT to win eleven games, upsetting Alabama or Georgia along the way.

The offense is too chaotic not to raise the ceiling to eleven... plus an SEC Championship berth.

Worst chaos scenario: 5-7, 2-6 SEC

Tennessee has taken a lot of criticism for their simplicity on offense, with some pointing towards the future saying that Heupel and the play calling can't work out in the longterm.

Is Hendon Hooker's production a byproduct of Tennessee's quarterback-friendly system? Can he repeat last year's numbers?

Adjustments on defense last year were atrocious. The Vols gave up 41.8 points per game in their six losses. The defense, which could not stop a nose bleed, will be bad again. The offense's speed at which they operate will also leave the defense out to dry.

No bowl game for Heupel, who is still putting together a solid 2023 recruiting class.

LSU

© SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

Best chaos scenario: 10-2, 6-2 SEC

LSU is the biggest wild card in the SEC this season.

Brian Kelly lacked upper-upper-echelon talent at Notre Dame, which he now has at LSU.

Speaking of top-end talent, Kayshon Boutte, the best receiver in the league, is back. Quarterback play should be above average, and it may not need to be perfect. A reworking of the entire offensive line is a good thing.

The defense wasn't awful last year, and it will be much improved behind one of the better pass rushes in the nation.

The Tigers kick off the season 5-0 and don't look back.

Worst chaos scenario: 5-7, 1-7 SEC

A combined six starters return. That does not inspire preseason pens to peg a ton of 2022 Tiger wins. Even the best coaching job would struggle to elevate a roster that lost 16 players to the transfer portal past, say, eight wins, right?

Quarterback ends up being more than just question mark with some B-grade potential. The offensive line isn't much better than it was a year ago.

The defense, which hasn't finished in the top five in the SEC in passing yards allowed since 2016 will once again be bad.

LSU may have star talent on paper, but the new coaching staff struggles to realize it.

There's also a possibility that the majority of that 'star' talent are whiffs, and no coaching job can bring out more than average production out of talent that turns out to be average.

The worst chaos scenario doesn't include LSU falling as far as one could, as the situation is not that dire. Throw in a fluky or close loss in conference play to give the Tigers four wins in 2022.

South Carolina

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Best chaos scenario: 9-3, 6-2 SEC

Ah yes, the Spencer Rattler effect.

South Carolina's offense (which brings back seven starters) has serious potential to take off. There are a lot of playmakers (albeit sneaky playmakers) across the two deep that could rock the SEC East.

The aforementioned Rattler plays like a former five-star quarterback. Josh Vann, Jaheim Bell, and Arkansas State transfer Corey Rucker form one of the better receiver trios in the conference.

Four of South Carolina's six losses in 2021 were on the road. Those four teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri) all have to play at Williams-Brice Stadium this year.

A revamped offense combined with an improved run defense gives the Gamecocks six conference wins. Shane Beamer & Co. finish second in the SEC East.

Worst chaos scenario: 3-9, 1-7 SEC

Oh no, the Spencer Rattler effect.

Rattler struggles to pick things up in the SEC and the offense is not much better than a season ago. There is a world where things sputter out of the gate and USC starts the year 0-3. 

Yes, Georgia State (Carolina's week one opponent) could beat the Gamecocks. The Panthers are 14th nationally in returning production and have already beaten an SEC team within the last three years (thanks, Tennessee).

The aforementioned rush defense (94th nationally in 2021) could also struggle, and things could play out a little something like this:

South Carolina cannot stop the run. Their offense, which could not stay on the field in 2021 (103rd nationally in third down conversion percentage), does not stay on the field. Nine of South Carolina's eleven FBS opponents had a top 50 rushing offense in 2021. Ten of those eleven FBS opponents bring back at least three of their top five rushers.

USC gets gashed by their schedule and despite possessing more talent than a season ago (and maybe even being a better overall team), they don't make a bowl because they could not establish the line of scrimmage.

Auburn

Alex Keller/Auburn Athletics

Best chaos scenario: 10-2, 6-2 SEC

People tend to forget that this team was at one point 6-2 in 2021, and on the verge of winning nine games.

The talent has not gotten worse. The most important piece to Auburn's always confusing puzzle, quarterback, has a higher floor than it did a season ago.

The defense might be a top three unit in the SEC, and the running game should be improved. The Tigers grit and grind their way past their daunting schedule (which includes eight home games) while still losing to Alabama and Georgia in the end.

A 5-0 start propels these Tigers to a 10-2 finish (just like LSU). New Year's Six bowl berth, everyone makes the old comment about how Auburn does the most when you expect them to do the least.

Worst chaos scenario: 3-9, 0-8 SEC

There's a solid chance that things get ugly quick.

Quarterback is uncertain. Fall camp reports indicate that accuracy has been a major issue, as has consistent offensive line play. Auburn can't lean on RB Tank Bigsby if they can't block for him like a season ago.

The secondary is a question mark. Depth at all positions minus tight end and wide receiver is suspect.

ESPN's FPI believes this is the most difficult schedule in the country. Auburn takes trips to Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama. Their inconsistent QB play and below average pass coverage kills them in home games against Penn State, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. The Tigers find themselves at the bottom of a very crowded SEC West.

Harsin is let go and the Auburn coaching carousel starts to quickly spin back into motion without any time for its booster-sponsored cogs to decay or rust.

If we're going to talk about moments within the sport that greatly effect outcomes of not just games, but programs, what if Tank Bigsby had stayed in bounds during the Iron Bowl?

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