What Auburn football's expected win total from 2021 says about the 2022 season

Are Auburn's preseason expectations skewed?

Lindy's Sports, one of several major sports publications, has already released its 2022 college football preview magazine. Within it there are several predictions and tidbits of information surrounding Auburn.

Almost all of them are negative, at least in the national version of the magazine.

Discussion of a lack of leadership. A "low ceiling" in terms of overall talent. A projected 12th place finish in the SEC, something that Auburn has had happen twice this century (2015, 2012). If I were a betting man, I would assume Phil Steele, Athon, Street Smith's, and most other publications will put the Tigers in a similar boat.

They will tell us this is shapes up to be a rough year, with a rough schedule, with evidently a rough exit for a second-year coach.

A lot of these predictions will be based, reasonably, on Auburn's five game slide to end the 2021 season. A stretch in which the Tigers struggled offensively, barely putting up touchdowns (much less any points) in the second half of contests. Shoutout inadequate quarterback play and a lack of push upfront when running the ball.

There's not a lot of faith in Bryan Harsin's ability to rebound this year after going 6-7 in his inaugural season with the Tigers.

But, what if Auburn had won just two more games? What if they had beaten Alabama? What if they didn't fall apart against Mississippi State? Would preseason magazines still say what they're saying now? Would the debacle between Harsin, the athletic department, and Auburn's boosters have ever happened?

Unfortunately, we'll never know. The 2021 chapter of Auburn's story has already been written.

Fortunately, we have some statistics that would indicate Auburn's season could have gone differently, and it gives us hope for what is currently presumed to be a bumpy 2022 season.

Take a look at our stat of the day.

Stat of the day

According to the Pythagorean expectation formula (created by Bill James), Auburn's expected win total in 2021 was 8.46, 2.46 wins higher than the 6 wins they achieved. See the formula below:

The Pythagorean expectation formula, as used in Bill Barnwell's article "The NFL’s Cloudy Crystal Ball"

What it means

Huge shoutout to Justin Ferguson of The Auburn Observer for this one. Justin does phenomenal work with Painter Sharpless over at the Observer, and I would highly encourage Auburn fans to go subscribe and take a dive into his content.

Ferg recently answered a question of mine in a mailbag, and within his response he linked an article of his titled "What can triangles and baseball analytics tell us about Auburn's 2022 football team?"

In which, he explains what the Pythagorean expectation formula is, and how it can be used to look at Auburn's 2021 season. Ferguson does a much better job explaining Auburn's numbers in the formula than I do, so here it is:

Auburn scored 368 points and allowed 283 points in 2021. Plug that in: 

368^2.37 / (368^2.37 + 283^2.37) = 0.6507749703 

Multiply that by the 13 games Auburn played, and the Tigers’ expected win total is 8.460074614. Instead of eight or even nine like the expectation suggests, they only won six.

Pretty simple right? Auburn underachieved. 

A healthy Auburn team likely beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl. In my opinion, the Tigers probably take the game 17-3 with Nix at quarterback, which at the time would have only been Saban's fifth 14-point+ loss of his 15-year tenure with the Crimson Tide. 

Harsin & Co. also probably find another win in their other final four games (against South Carolina or in the bowl).

Unfortunately, the formula does not factor in strength of schedule or quality of opponent, which throws things off a bit. Ferguson goes on to explain why even though Auburn blew out Akron and Alabama State by a combined score of 122-10, skewing the results of the formula, other metrics indicate that Auburn had room to win more games.

Auburn’s performance in non-blowouts show that it still underachieved compared to its expected win total last year. Even though the Pythagorean formula isn’t adjusted for opponent strength, other analytics in college football have those tweaks. The main one often cited on here is 

Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings system

.

If you go back and look at the end of last season, Auburn was at No. 29 in the entire FBS despite having a losing record. It was just slightly behind three 10-win teams from Power Five conferences — Kentucky, Iowa and Michigan State. The schedule matters.

An interesting note here: Auburn's scoring differential was +6 (The Tigers scored 27.8 points per game, and allowed 21.8 points per game). 

Here's some trivia for you - Since 2009 (the year CFBstats.com was created), how many other SEC teams have had had a +6 (or better) point differential and only won six games?

None. Well, technically one if we want to count 2019 Missouri, who went 6-6 and had a differential of +5.9. Oddly enough, those Tigers also suffered a five-game losing streak before beating their rival Arkansas 24-14 in their regular season finale. I'll give you a cookie if you can tell me who finished with the most passing yards for both teams without clicking this box score link.

Point being, the Tigers had a very uncharacteristic 2021 season and should be improved in 2022 if things don't completely collapse. There's an argument to be made that not only is Auburn as good as they were last year, but they're better in several areas. The most notable are the trenches, which is the starting point for all solid teams.

It could also be argued that while the overall talent level is not as high as it has been in the past, the floor in Auburn's two-deep is higher... specifically at the most important position, quarterback. Avoiding inconsistency and drop-off will be key for a team that has proved it can gameplan and execute against the big boys.

Eight wins could be on the docket in 2022. Bryan Harsin has already voiced his opinion on his team this offseason: The Tigers are underrated.

That's usually when Auburn is the most dangerous.

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