Baylor Seeking Defensive Reset After Overtime Loss
Baylor has a defense problem.
After winning a national championship on the back of elite team chemistry, and taking a step forward defensively in 2021-22, the Bears’ defense has fallen back to earth with enough force to shake a mountain.
That mountain, of course, being the end of a historic run of dominance in the Big 12: for the first time since the sanctioned 2005-06 season, Baylor is 0-3 in Big 12 play.
For just the third time in Scott Drew's Baylor tenure, the Bears are 0-3 to start conference play:
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) January 9, 2023
2003-04: Scott Drew's first season in Waco (8-21, 3-13)
2005-06: Team only allowed to play conference games due to sanctions (4-13, 4-12)
2022-23: Preseason Big 12 favorites (TBD)
Those struggles can be mostly attributed to the Bears’ less-than-stellar defense. After taking care of business against a handful of mid-majors back in November, Baylor allowed 86 points in a loss to Virginia (the No. 222 offense in the country), 75 points in a win over UCLA, and 96 points in a blowout loss at Marquette.
The defense got back on track for the rest of pre-conference play but has struggled mightily to stop other Big 12 opponents.
The Bears allowed 77 points at Iowa State, 88 points in a narrow loss to TCU and, on Saturday, 97 points in an overtime loss to Jerome Tang’s Kansas State Wildcats.
It’s been a long time since Baylor’s defense has looked like this, especially at home. The last time the Bears had allowed 80-plus points in consecutive games was in Jan. 2018, and they hadn’t done so at home since Feb. 2016.
Notably, both of those losses (at Florida, 81-60; at Oklahoma, 98-96) came on the road. Baylor hasn't allowed 80+ points in consecutive home games in almost seven years:
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) January 8, 2023
84-66 L vs Texas Tech (2/13/16)
100-91 (OT) W vs Iowa State (2/16/16)#SicEm
The Bears currently rank No. 212 out of 363 teams nationally in scoring defense, allowing 69.8 points per game. That’s last in the Big 12, and undermining a high-octane offense averaging 80.9 points per game (No. 27 nationally) behind a barrage of three-pointers.
Just two other Baylor teams this century have scored that many points: a national champion and a first-round playoff exit.
Defensive struggles aside, this Baylor offense is historically good. The Bears are currently ranked No. 27 in scoring, and are one of only three Scott Drew teams to score 80+ PPG:
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) January 9, 2023
2007-08: 81.3 PPG (first-round exit)
2020-21: 82.9 PPG (national champions)
2022-23: 80.9 PPG (TBD)
There’s no simple solution for Baylor’s defensive struggles. A lack of length, exacerbated by an over-reliance on guards to play forward minutes, is perhaps the biggest issue.
Josh Ojianwuna is developing quickly, but there’s still no consistent presence in the paint to deter drivers. Pair that with what Drew called an “atrocious” transition defense, and the Bears are left with no real defensive identity.
This team doesn’t have to run the Syracuse zone to be effective. Dale Bonner and Jalen Bridges are already high-level defenders, and Ojianwuna is well on his way. As disjointed as the defensive roster construction feels, it isn’t a collection of bad defenders – if they play as a team, the Bears can and will be effective on that end of the floor.
That’s easier said than done, especially considering that every Big 12 team is in the top 41 of the KenPom rankings, and six (including Baylor) are in the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Big 12 is a gauntlet, and the Bears won’t have any more cupcake games the rest of the way.
But if they can rally together and find a way to gel on defense, they’ll be right back in the thick of the Big 12 title race.
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