Baylor's Quarterback Situation on Brink of Disaster
Austin Novosad committing to Oregon is a disaster for Baylor.
After flirting with Texas A&M, Ohio State and Notre Dame over the summer, Novosad reaffirmed his commitment to the Bears. But the night before signing day, just a week after telling Inside The Bears that he’d be enrolling early at Baylor, rumors began swirling that he was reconsidering his commitment. And on Wednesday morning, he made it official.
Sco Ducks🦆 pic.twitter.com/paSMec0YeV
— Austin Novosad (@Austin2novosad) December 21, 2022
Since committing just over a year ago, Novosad played a major role in how Baylor mapped out its quarterback room. Since last December, four Baylor quarterbacks have transferred to other FBS schools (Jacob Zeno to UAB, Gerry Bohanon to USF, CJ Rogers to Texas State and Kyron Drones to Virginia Tech).
But the Bears haven’t brought in any scholarship replacements for those players. Novosad was Baylor’s highest-rated recruit since Jarrett Stidham in 2015; it was always assumed that he would be the next great Baylor quarterback.
Now, the Bears are headed for panic mode.
With just one scholarship quarterback on the roster, Baylor has no succession or contingency plan for Blake Shapen, should he leave or get injured. The lack of a scholarship player to run the second-team offense during spring ball is a concern as well, even if the Bears manage to flip a prep signal-caller sometime before the second National Signing Day in February.
On Wednesday, Dave Aranda told reporters that Baylor’s quarterback focus will turn to the transfer portal starting in January.
Due to an NCAA recruiting dead period, direct contact with recruits is prohibited until seven days before classes start in the spring; still, the portal opened on Dec. 5, and contact should’ve been made then.
One of the most prominent examples of quarterback mismanagement in recent college football history took place about an hour and a half southeast of Waco, in a little town called College Station.
Back in 2015, Kevin Sumlin lost Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray – top-ranked signal-callers from back-to-back recruiting classes – in the same month. And that news came just a year after former starter Kenny Hill transferred to TCU.
Sumlin never righted the ship at Texas A&M. He brought in graduate transfer Trevor Knight to hold down the fort in 2016, then handed the reigns to Nick Starkel and former Baylor commit Kellen Mond in 2017. He was fired following a blowout loss to LSU, finishing his final season 7-5.
Perhaps the evocation of post-Johnny Manziel era Texas A&M is too pessimistic, but Baylor’s quarterback room is at a critical juncture. With the rise of early commitments and the transfer period, it’s impossible to know who could still be available after the dust settles on Wednesday.
Only two of the top 1,000 quarterbacks in the 247 Sports Composite remain uncommitted: Elite 11 finalist Marcus Stokes from Ponte Vedra Beach (FL) Nease, and three-star Bo Edmundson out of Austin (TX) Lake Travis. Stokes has been connected with Florida, and Edmundson is a former Michigan State commit.
If the Bears want a quarterback in this class – and they most certainly need one – there are only three real options at this point. They could bring in a big-time transfer, like a Grayson McCall or Hudson Card. They could try to flip a Group of Five commit, or they could bring in multiple walk-ons or grad transfers from lower-level programs (think Luke Anthony) to keep the depth chart afloat.
Realistically, they’ll have to do at least two of the three.
There are certainly some talented quarterbacks still in the portal, including all five that we discussed earlier this week: Card (Texas), Brennan Armstrong (Virginia), Chandler Rogers (Louisiana-Monroe), Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) and Malik Hornsby (Arkansas). Other options include McCall (Coastal Carolina), Luke Altmeyer (Ole Miss), Texas native Brendon Lewis (Colorado) and former Texas A&M starter Zach Calzada (Auburn).
The main issue with the majority of the names listed above is the precarious nature of Baylor’s circumstances. If Aranda brings in a big-name grad transfer like Sanders, would Shapen leave for starting opportunities elsewhere? What if the staff brings in a younger signal-caller, such as Altmeyer? Like trainers attempting to face Wallace in the Sootopolis City gym, this Baylor coaching staff is skating on thin ice, and must be very careful where it steps.
A safer, though perhaps a more difficult option, is enticing a high school recruit to de-commit and join the Bears. But there’s just one problem with that idea: there aren’t any.
In the age of NIL and the transfer portal, college coaches are pushing recruits more than ever to sign in December rather than waiting until February – and it’s worked. Every single top-100 quarterback committed to a Group of Five program signed their letter of intent on Wednesday, leaving just 11 of the top 100 quarterbacks uncommitted.
At this point, it seems increasingly likely that Baylor will have at least one grad transfer on the roster for 2023, likely as an experienced backup, with another transfer or walk-on learning behind Shapen.
It’s a far cry from what Baylor fans dreamed of just a month ago – a spring competition between Shapen and Drones, with Novosad waiting in the wings – but that ship has sailed.
Drones is in Blacksburg, Novosad is in Eugene, and the Baylor Bears are getting dangerously close to quarterback purgatory.
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